Markets on the edge – Crude, Gold, equities and Euro at pivotal June crossroads

As we approach June 2025, global markets are moving through highly sensitive macro and cyclical zones. Crude oil has plunged nearly 25%, currently hovering around $61 per barrel. This decline is largely driven by OPEC+ increasing supply to pressure U.S. shale producers. However, the upcoming OPEC+ meeting could shift this trend. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain a major risk—any flare-up in the region could sharply reverse oil’s downtrend and rattle broader market sentiment.

Gold is currently in a consolidation phase, weighed by temporary economic calm yet supported by undercurrents of geopolitical uncertainty. It could rally again if inflation concerns return or global tensions escalate. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 continues to edge toward record highs despite ongoing tariff pressures and policy ambiguity, showing resilience but also remaining exposed to potential volatility. In currencies, the euro is making a mild recovery amid cooling inflation and weak growth, with all eyes now on the ECB’s key rate decision on June 5.

Adding to the complexity, June 3 is emerging as a critical timing pivot for several asset classes. Cycle clustering models indicate it could mark a short-term top or bottom, increasing the likelihood of market reversals. With so many moving parts—OPEC+ decisions, central bank policy shifts, and geopolitical flashpoints—traders and investors should remain on high alert. A seemingly calm market may not stay that way for long, especially if Middle East dynamics or inflation shocks resurface.

E-mini

The ES1! chart shows a completed 83-candle impulse leg from 5992 down to 5756, followed by a sharp corrective rally up to 6006. The subsequent decline to 5883 suggests the beginning of a new bearish leg. The structure remains intact for a continued downward move, with opportunities to short from key resistance levels and prepare to flip long from major demand.

First impulse move (5992 – 5756)

• A clear 83-candle impulse breakdown from 5992 to 5756 and from low to high same number of candles on Hourly chart.
• Market structure – Break of Structure (BOS), followed by Change of Character (CHoCH) and Fair Value Gap (FVG) rejections.
• This move represents the initial directional shift and sets the foundation for the bearish sequence.

Corrective rally (5756 – 6006)

The bounce retraced approximately 78.6%–88.6% of the impulse leg.

Price rejected from a confluence of supply zones, including:

• FVGs
• Order blocks
• High-volume node resistance

Multiple bearish signs emerged:

• CHoCH after 6006
• Failure to establish a higher high

Current action (6006 – 5883)

• Price has retraced to 5883 and is consolidating under the 200 EMA.
• Lower highs forming; volume and momentum have shifted bearish again.
• Multiple unfilled FVGs below price act as magnetic targets.

Trade setup

Short strategy

• Short from 5955–5971, ideally around FVGs and structural resistance.
• A stop should be placed just above 6006 (prior high and invalidation point).
• First target is 5818 (previous demand zone).
• Second target is 5597, a key potential reversal zone.

Flip long strategy

• If price reaches 5597 and begins to reverse with confirmation (BOS/CHoCH, absorption), this becomes a high-probability long entry.
• Use tight stops and prepare for potential new highs.

Key technical confirmations

• MACD: Bearish crossover, with momentum declining after 6006
• Volume profile: Visible imbalance and low participation above 5971; strong interest below 5900
• Fair value gaps: Stacked beneath price, indicating unfinished business on the downside
• Market structure: Consistent lower highs, CHoCH and BOS confirming bearish continuation

We observe a continuation of the downward move with short-term rallies offering opportunities to re-engage shorts. The 5955–5971 area is critical for short setups, while 5597 is a potential inflection zone where market structure could flip back in favor of the bulls. A decisive break and hold below 5818 opens the door to 5597, where buyers may step back.

Euro futures

The current chart on Euro FX Futures (6E1!) highlights a developing Elliott Wave impulse structure aligned with Arc Fibonacci geometry and horizontal resistance levels. The market appears to be tracing out Wave (5) of a larger motive wave, potentially topping early next week—Monday being critical—coinciding with a Mars-Moon astro-signature, a common inflection window in financial astrology.

Elliott Wave structure

• The count is clean

(1) Mid-Dec to early Feb rise

(2) Shallow pullback

 (3) Extended wave reaching the April high (5 subwaves inside)

(4) Classic correction into May

• Now unfolding Wave (5) targeting 1.16600 (1.618 extension of wave 1 from wave 4 low).
• The current price action is part of Wave (5) and nearing exhaustion.
• Small-degree wave structure within (5) also forming a possible wedge or terminal pattern.

Arc Fibonacci and timing

Gann/Arc Fibonacci Circles show strong confluence around:

• 1.10880
• 1.12275
• 1.13655
• 1.15690
• Target Zone = 1.16600 (marked with label for Wave (5) 1.618 extension)

 Arc timing suggests the price is entering the final arc quadrant—often where a reversal occurs.

Horizontal price levels

Key S/R levels:

• Support: 1.08770 / 1.05625.
• Resistance: 1.10880 → 1.12275 → 1.13655.
• Break of 1.08770 post top would confirm downtrend resumption.

Note the symbolic use of martial arts & warriors:

• Samurai (Top) = Wave (3) apex
• Ninjas (Right) = price attack/resistance zone (impending battle before reversal)

Astro timing (Mars–Moon signature)

Monday (June 2) brings Mars conjunct Moon—a historically volatile reversal signal.

This astro-date lines up perfectly with:

• Arc cluster.
• Completion of Wave (5).
• Overbought conditions in momentum oscillators.

Indicators

• MACD Histogram: Bullish but flattening—momentum divergence setting in.
• Stochastic/RSIOMA Combo: In high zone, ready to roll over—adds weight to “Monday Top” thesis.

Strategic outlook

Euro likely tops around 1.16600 by Monday, followed by sharp reversal. Prepare for downside confirmation early next week—watch 1.10880 and 1.08770 for breakdown.

Gold futures – GC1

Price fell sharply to test the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the previous upward leg, forming a swing low at approx. 3,283.5.

Reversal and breakout

From this base, a clean reversal occurred with a strong bullish engulfing candle, clearing previous supply zones and breaching above VWAP and 200 EMA.

Fibonacci and range mapping

Recovery rallied through multiple Fib levels:

• Broke past 0.236, 0.382, and 0.5 retracement zones with conviction.
• Pulled back slightly from just above the 1.0 extension hinting temporary exhaustion near 3,357.

Volume profile and momentum

• Aggressive breakout candle with high volume support.
• Momentum confirmed by long position label and strong follow-through buying.

Key levels

Trade Plan

Previous Long (Completed trade)

• Entry: 3,285 – 3,290 (off Fib confluence + structure support)
• Exit: 3,355 – 3,357 (near prior highs / liquidity grab zone)
• Rationale: 3-leg reversal pattern completed with clean impulse move.

New trade setup – Pullback buy

• Entry: 3,320 – 3,330 (FVG + potential retest zone)
• Stop: Below 3,310 (structure invalidation)
• Target 1: 3,357 (recent high)
• Target 2: 3,377+ (extension zone)

Counter-Short Option (High-Risk)

• Entry: 3,357 – 3,360 (retest of exhaustion wick)
• Stop: Above 3,365
• Target: 3,325 – 3,310 (toward FVG / demand)

Gold has completed a deep retracement and strong bullish reversal. Price has broken structure and printed a higher high, making pullback buys favorable at identified demand zones. Only tactical shorts from extremes are valid, and only if structure shifts again. Watch the 3,320–3,330 zone for continuation confirmation or failed bounce.

Crude Oil Futures – CL1

Crude Oil Futures (CL1!) is showing signs of a potential trend reversal after a prolonged downtrend from the $79.60 peak. The price action recently formed a clear double bottom near the $57.50 area, which typically signals exhaustion of selling pressure and the start of accumulation. The breakout above the neckline around 60.20 confirms this pattern and indicates bullish intent.

A long corrective rectangle marked the prior phase of distribution. With the breakout, price is now moving into a consolidation zone, forming a flag structure, which often precedes a continuation move. Momentum indicators are supporting the bullish case, with the histogram turning green and expanding.

The active trade setup suggests entering long at 5805, with a stop-loss at 5687 and an upside target of 6780. This setup offers an excellent risk-reward ratio. The 6441 zone is marked as a MOB (Make or Break) area, and could act as a resistance level or pivot zone. Price action around this level should be watched carefully for signs of exhaustion or breakout strength.

June 3rd is a significant time projection and could play a critical role in deciding whether the bullish momentum continues or fades. This date may mark a trend acceleration or reversal, so observing how price behaves leading into and beyond that day is essential.

If the price reaches above 61.80, moving the stop to breakeven would be a prudent step to lock in risk. Partial profits near 6441 can be considered, while the final target remains at 6780, which aligns with prior structure and harmonic projections.

The overall setup reflects a shift from bearish to potential bullish structure, but confirmation will come from how the price unfolds around the June 3rd cycle window.

Final note

Markets are entering a critical inflection point as June unfolds, with macro, geopolitical, and cyclical forces converging. Oil’s trajectory hinges on OPEC+ decisions and Middle East stability, while gold waits in consolidation for the next trigger. Equities show strength but face hidden risks, and the euro’s recovery remains fragile ahead of the ECB verdict. With June 3 marked as a potential pivot, vigilance is key—volatility may reawaken across the board.