Analysis

Loonie strengthens ahead of January rate hike

Later today the Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce its December interest-rate decision: we think it will remain unchanged, but a climb is likely in January. USD/CAD has tracked front-end yield spreads tightening in the last six months. With a US Federal Reserve December rate hike priced-in and a hawkish BoC, a USD/CAD reversal from 1.29 resistance presages a deeper correction towards 1.2566 (100-day moving average).


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Q3 economic data surprised to the upside. Labour markets exceeded expectations, demand was strong, and the prospect of US tax reform could accelerate Canadian growth and reduce risk of the North American Free Trade Agreement falling apart. The BoC is likely to hike rates steadily, in a gradual process.

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