Looking at 2021

The availability of vaccines combined with coordinated health policies and generous fiscal stimulus measures will signal economic recovery and a significant boost to international economic activity.According to the OECD, world GDP is expected to increase by 4.2% in 2021 and by 3.7% in 2022 after falling by 4.2% in 2020.

Policymakers continue to balance economic growth and health security until vaccinations create the net of protection against the virus for society as a whole.Vaccines are expected to lead to fewer deaths and therefore fewer restrictive mobility measures, so economic growth is likely to be better than expected.However, expectations for economic recovery are accompanied by multiple uncertainties and especially by many inequalities.

The gradual abandonment of stimulus measures through monetary and fiscal policy is expected to begin in 2021, and this will reveal the "wounds" of the economic shock caused by the health crisis while Covid-19 pandemic will remain a threat throughout 2021, especially for the developing countries.

The rate of economic recovery in 2021 according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development-OECD as presented in the following table will be asymmetric between the countries.

According to the OECD, in the US, there is expected to be a 3.2% recovery in 2021, after the 3.7% contraction that is estimated to have occurred in 2020.

In the Eurozone, GDP is expected to increase in 2021, by about 3.6% and thus will not be able to cover the losses of 3.9% in 2020. The gap will be reduced to 2.7% in Germany, while it will remain close to 3.1% and 4.8% respectively, in France and Italy.

In the United Kingdom, a tough Brexit was averted, but a significant 11.2% drop in GDP in 2020 was not avoided, while, according to the OECD, economic growth in 2021 is expected to reach 4.2%.

China is expected to achieve strong growth of 8% in 2021, representing more than a third of projected global growth.

The recovery will be stronger if the vaccines are released quickly, boosting confidence and reducing uncertainty.Greater uncertainties and worsening economic growth will occur where vaccination development delays occur. In developing countries where vaccination becomes more difficult, economic recovery is expected to be turbulent.

Recovery will be stronger if the vaccines are released quickly, boosting confidence and reducing uncertainty. In this light, there will be greater uncertainty and impossibility of immediate recovery where there will be delays in vaccinating the population.

Thus, the economies and currencies of countries where there will be a lack of vaccination will continue to move weakly while this weakness is likely to create unrest.

Stimulus programs will continue to be on the table and therefore monetary policy will be extended for some time, but as mentioned above it will be limited, thus revealing the great loss suffered by companies.

On the other hand, there will be great opportunities for companies to help prevent climate change. The planet is about to reach temperatures not seen in millions of years, with potentially catastrophic consequences. It is quite indicative that about 30% of the European Union's rescue plan, the € 1 trillion of its seven-year budget, is related to initiatives to combat the harmful effects of climate change.

In the future, in addition to the pandemic, it is good to keep in mind the possible geopolitical instability that may arise from events such as: the future UK trade relationship with the EU, the succession of the German Chancellor, US relations with Iran, and potential trade tensions between the US and China.

In conclusion, we are entering a period in which the pandemic will begin to become manageable, so economic activity will normalize and therefore economies will grow compared to last year. However, this recovery will have imbalances and as the great wounds left by the pandemic are revealed, there will be periods of intense instability in both developing and mainly developed markets.