Analysis

Lights out retail sales print highlights strong Q3 GDP

Retail sales shot up 1.9% in September handily exceeding expectations as consumers continue to adjust to living with the virus. Restaurant receipts rose another 2.1%, but are still 15% below their pre-pandemic peak.

Strong Print, Restaurants Getting Closer to Peak

Retail sales rose more than double the consensus expectation with gains across the board. In fact, the only category to post a decline was electronics stores where some payback was inevitable after strong demand in prior months.

Restaurants and bars were crushed during the shutdowns, but after five straight monthly gains, the category is now off only 15% from its peak. Tough months ahead though with cooler weather.

Everybody Wants their Own Wheels All of the Sudden

In descending order, the biggest contributions to September's retail sales report were: autos, clothing and restaurants. This is hardly emblematic of the sort of spending trends you'd expect of a cash-strapped, budget conscious consumer, a theme against which we have been pushing back.

The 3.6% increase in autos is the fourth gain in five months and comes amid increased demand for used autos as well.

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