Jobs Friday with no jobs

USD: Mar '26 is Up at 97.705.  

Energies: Mar '26 Crude is Down at 63.04.

Financials: The Mar '26 30 Year T-Bond is Higher by 5 ticks and trading at 115.17.

Indices: The Mar '26 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 120 ticks Higher and trading at 6850.00.

Gold: The Feb'26 Gold contract is trading Up at 4917.90

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market. The USD is Up and Crude is Down which is normal, and the 30 Year T-Bond is trading Higher.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Lower which is correlated. Gold is trading Higher which is not correlated with the US dollar trading Up.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. Asia traded Lower except the Hang Seng and Singapore exchanges..  Currently all of Europe is trading Lower.

Possible challenges to traders                                                  

• Prelim UOM Consumer Sentiment is out at 10 AM EST.  This is Major.
• Prelim UOM Inflation Expectations is out at 10 AM EST.  This is Major.
• FOMC Member Jefferson Speaks at 12 Noon.  This is Major.
• Consumer Credit is out at 3 PM EST.  This is Major.

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 Year (ZN) to the 2 Year (ZT).  They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract.  The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZT climbed Higher at around 8:30 AM EST with Unemployment Claims pending.   The Dow dived Lower at around the same time.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The ZT dived Lower at around 8:30 AM EST and the Dow climbed Higher at around the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Long opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 20 plus ticks per contract on this trade.  Each tick is worth $6.25.  Please note: the front month for the ZT and YM are both Mar '26.  I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of barcharts

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets a Neutral or Mixed bias, but the markets veered to the Downside with all indices closing Lower. Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market and our bias is Neutral or Mixed.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

Yesterday the markets veered Lower with the Dow closing 593 points Lower and the other indices closed Lower as well.