Inflation data game plan
|S&P 500, precious metals and Bitcoin all rose on high unemployment claims – driven by rate cut prospects rather than inflation fears. They see the slowly deteriorating economic data from PMI, GDP and job market (hiring and firing) together with stubborn and waking up inflation. This though has the important distinction that the leading PPI is to reflect the economic slow down by less likely coming in hot, unlike CPI and (shelter heavy) core CPI.
The technical development is that following marginally higher high with indecision, stocks rose through 5,215 resistance on the rate cuts (still just 50% odds for Sep, but salivation for Jul is palpable), and decisively – best played in intraday terms. Equities though couldn‘t have beaten the great silver move called.
This is how I summed up today‘s data and market reaction anticipation in our channel yesterday.
Gold, Silver and Miners
Silver had a stellar day yesterday, and odds are that this isn‘t over – fresh upswing taking on $29.50 is to follow next week. Be ready though for almost traditional dipping nearer main events such as inflation data or FOMC – historical experience.
Crude Oil
There was meek oil follow-through to the upside, but I don‘t think this is anyhow wildly bullish, and more price deterioration ultimately awaits next week.
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