I Think About What Could Happen If I Am Not Selective
|Good Day Traders.
While there is certainly ample price movement, it is not terribly easy or clear to forecast at present. And that's OK; recognizing that is part of being a successful trader. We should be participating when we feel we have an edge.
- Right now, USD pairs are unclear with the exception of AUD/USD.
- Where I see an edge is latching on to trades that will take a 'risk-on' bias tied to the S&P 500. My go-to FX cross for this is CAD/JPY.
- Additionally, we might want to look at the extreme moves seen in GBP of late and consider fading it. In this case, longs in EUR/GBP
AUD/USD has completed a 3-wave correction off the lows (I suggested closing longs on Friday at the forecast target of .6800'ish - prices are now 45 pips lower). Additionally, copper prices look vulnerable to lower levels as well, thus I am expecting AUD/USD to take out the recent lows at .6710
S&P's poised for another push higher after this corrective move lower is complete. I expect CAD/JPY to follow along.
Mean reversion is what I see in EUR/GBP. You could also make the case, as I did on Friday, that GBP/USD is due for a move lower based on the same exact rationale.
Dave
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