How to trade the US Core Durable Goods Orders with EUR/USD

• The US Durable Goods Orders is eyed by the Fed for investment trends and always moves the dollar.
• The Market Impact Tool shows trading opportunities in both upside and downside surprises on this event.
• The EURUSD moved, on average, 12 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 40 pips in the following 4 hours.

Tradeable asset: Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation

Buying EUR/USD Scenario

• Tradable Negative Trigger: -1.03 deviation (0.13) [BUY Pair]

• Key Resistance Level: 1.1625

If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -1.03 or less(-0.13 or lower in actual terms), the EURUSD may go up reaching a range of 26 pips in the first 15 minutes and 76 pips in the following 4 hours.

The round number of 1.1600 was a swing high early in the week. The 1.1625 peak seen on Wednesday is the next level to watch. 1.1665 separated ranges early in the month and remains relevant. 

Selling EUR/USD Scenario

• Tradable Positive Trigger: +0.62 deviation (0.88 ) [SELL Pair]

  Key Support Level: 1.1540

This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of 0.62 or higher(0.88 or higher in actual terms), the pair may go down reaching a range of 17  pips in the first 15 minutes and 63 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.1540 capped the pair on its way up and also worked as support beforehand. 1.1495 was low early in the week. Below, 1.1445 held the EUR/USD down in mid-August.

EUR/USD Levels on the Chart

 

 

More data

Orders of durable goods reflect long-term investment in the economy and fit into the Fed's scope of targeting medium-term developments. Core orders eliminate the noise from volatile items.

See the preview: US Durable Goods Orders preview: activity seen easing in July

In the last five releases, the EURUSD moved, on average, 12 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 40 pips in the following 4 hours. The previous release had a negative surprise of -0.163 in terms of relative deviation and the EURUSD reached a 13 pip range in the first 15 minutes and a range of 56 pips 4 hours thereafter.

Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.