How to trade the UK GDP with GBP/USD
|- The UK GDP report provides a broad overview of the economy and has a significant impact on the Pound.
- The Market Impact Tool shows trading opportunities in both upside and downside surprises on this event.
- The GBPUSD moved, on average, 10 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 28 pips in the following 4 hours. The previous release had no surprise.
Buying GBP/USD Scenario
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Tradable Positive Trigger: +1.90 deviation (0.22%) [BUY Pair]
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Key Resistance Level: 1.3290
This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of 1.90 or higher(0.22 or higher in actual terms), the pair may go up reaching a range of 54 pips in the first 15 minutes and 116 pips in the following 4 hours.
1.3190 was a swing low on June 26th. 1.3290 capped the pair on June 25th. 1.3320 was a peak on June 22nd.
Selling GBP/USD Scenario
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Tradable Negative Trigger: -1.59 deviation (0.01%) [SELL Pair]
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Fundamental Support Level: 1.3030
If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -1.59 or less(-0.01 or lower in actual terms), the GBPUSD may go down reaching a range of 34 pips in the first 15 minutes and 83 pips in the following 4 hours.
1.3100 is a round number and also a low on June 21st. The 2018 trough of 1.3050 is a key downside level. The round level of 1.3000 is the next level to watch.
GBP/USD Levels on the Chart
More data
The UK economy grew at a slow rate of 0.1% QoQ in the first quarter, according to the second release. Various factors have been blamed for this slowdown, with the weather standing out. The final release is projected to confirm the initial read.
See: UK GDP Preview: First-quarter slower growth is all forgotten as BoE turns hawkish
In the last five releases, the GBPUSD moved, on average, 10 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 28 pips in the following 4 hours. The previous release had no surprise.
Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.
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