How to trade the UK GDP release with GBP/USD
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The second release of Q1 UK GDP is expected to have a significant impact on the Pound.
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The Market Impact Tool shows trading opportunities in both upside and downside surprises on this event.
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The GBP/USD moved, on average, 32 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 78 pips in the following 4 hours.
Buying GBP/USD Scenario
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Tradable Positive Trigger: +2.5 deviation (0.36%) [BUY Pair]
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Key Resistance Level: 1.3500
This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of +2.5 or higher (0.36% or higher in actual terms), the pair may go up reaching a range of 34 pips in the first 15 minutes and 75 pips in the following 4 hours.
1.3456 was a support line in mid-May. Further up, the round level of 1.35 played a role in both directions. The 1.3615 level capped the pair in early May and in early January.
Selling GBP/USD Scenario
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Tradable Negative Trigger: -2.5 deviation (0.04%) [SELL Pair]
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Fundamental Support Level: 1.3300
If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -2.5 or less (0.04% or lower in actual terms), the GBP/USD may go down reaching a range of 44 pips in the first 15 minutes and 94 pips in the following 4 hours.
1.3350 was a low point in late December 2017. The round number of 1.3300 was a support line in mid-May and also in mid-December. Further down, 1.3230 was a swing low in December. Even lower, 1.3180 was a pivotal line in the range in November.
GBP/USD Levels on the Chart
More data
The first release of UK GDP for Q1 2017 showed a significant slowdown: 0.1% GDP growth QoQ. The Pound fell on the release as well as on other disappointing figures. The second release is expected to show a similar number.
See the preview: Growth set to look slightly better than at the first glance
In the last five releases, the GBP/USD moved, on average, 32 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 78 pips in the following 4 hours.
The previous release had a negative surprise of -3.16 regarding relative deviation and the GBP/USD reached a 72 pip range in the first 15 minutes and a range of 179 pips 4 hours after that.
Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.
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