How to trade Brexit
|With a Brexit deal finally reached with the EU, many would think the trading opportunities have passed. From the $1.22 to $1.30 run in GBPUSD, to the recent sell offs in the FSTE100, have you missed out? Looking at the headlines, “Brexit Agreed” does that mean the markets are no longer uncertain? When it comes to market headlines some wise words were stated to me this past week by Tim Furey, CEO of Tradeview Markets via TradeGateHub. “ Tune out the majority of what you hear, follow the markets not the noise”.
When it comes to noise most traders have been deafened by the various twists and turns within Brexit and this recent round of events have left many of us needing hearing aids. However providing our eyes have been left unscaved, we will see the opportunities have only just begun, here’s why.
Although a deal with the EU was agreed this deal now has to pass Parliament, something which previous deals have failed to do on 3 separate occasions. Boris has also become the first Prime Minister to lose all votes his government has put before Parliament, and if the DUP keep maintain there position there is the potential this new deal could follow suit, so where is the opportunity? How do you trade Brexit?
GBPUSD
You look at the technical. Starting with Cable - the past week has seen the rally many were hoping for back in August when the market reached near $1.17 low. A point in which it had only reached only twice before in over 20 years. At that point the markets had relative weakness, trading close to 30 on the RSI. The 10 day moving average showed a potential for a bounce at the floor, it was just a matter of when. Now the tables have turned. Markets have started resistance at $1.28, after hitting a high of $1.30 which now looks like a false break. RSI looks overbought after hitting a level of 73 last reached in January this year.
The next few days will likely throw more curve balls, however if this deal does get thrown out by Parliament, we may be looking at potential shorts. What is your Tradeview?
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