Gold, USD/JPY, Oil [Video]

• Weak PMI or ADP may lift gold.
• PCE data supports USD if inflation stays firm, while BoJ hawkishness keeps USDJPY under pressure.
• OPEC+ holds output steady; WTI climbs above 60.

US ISM PMIs and ADP – Gold

The ISM Manufacturing PMI for November is due Monday, with markets watching closely for signs of stabilization after months of contraction. The sector has been shrinking since March amid tariff-related uncertainty and weaker global demand. Employment remains soft, with the sub-index below 50 since February, while prices have fallen sharply from near 70 to 58 in October, challenging claims that tariffs are inflationary. In contrast, services prices remain elevated near 70, pointing to persistent domestic inflation pressures around 3%.

Attention will also turn to Wednesday’s ADP employment report, where AFP forecasts a modest 19k increase, down from October’s 42k gain. With the official payrolls report delayed until December 16, ADP will serve as a key labor market gauge. A weaker PMI or ADP print could reinforce expectations for policy easing and weaken the dollar, boosting gold demand, while stronger data may pressure bullion as risk appetite improves.

Gold prices are advancing above the short-term symmetrical triangle formed over the past one and a half months, meeting the 4,250 resistance again. A higher rally could reach the record peak at 4,381 before entering uncharted territory and targeting the next round number at 4,500. However, a decline below 4,045 may shift traders’ focus to the downside, hitting 4,000 and 3,915. Technical oscillators appear mixed.

US core PCE index – USD/JPY

Markets will turn to Friday’s PCE inflation and personal consumption data for September, offering clues on the Fed’s policy path. Headline PCE is expected to edge up to 2.8% y/y from 2.7%, while core PCE likely holds at 2.9%, signaling sticky underlying inflation. Although November figures will matter more, any upside surprise could dampen rate-cut expectations and support the dollar.

Meanwhile, risk sentiment in Asia shifted sharply as Japanese yields surged, with the 10-year JGB breaking above 1.87%, its highest in 15 years. This followed Governor Ueda’s strongest signal yet that the BoJ will weigh the “pros and cons” of a rate hike at its December 18–19 meeting, reinforcing speculation of policy normalization. Rising yields and hawkish BoJ rhetoric have lifted the yen, pressuring USDJPY lower. If US inflation surprises higher, dollar strength could offset yen gains; softer PCE would amplify downside risks for USDJPY.

USDJPY has been in a bearish corrective mode since peaking at the ten-month high of 157.90, sliding below the short-term uptrend line with the potential to meet the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) around the 155.00 support. Moving lower, the 50-day SMA at 152.80 may act as a turning point. A rebound off 155.00 may raise the likelihood of a retest of 157.90 and 158.86. The stochastic and MACD indicators suggest further losses.

OPEC+ keeps output unchanged – WTI Crude Oil

WTI crude surged over 2% to 60.00, its highest in more than a week, after OPEC+ reaffirmed its decision to keep output unchanged through the first quarter of next year. The move, widely anticipated, signals the group’s determination to maintain market stability amid uneven demand and fears of oversupply. OPEC+ emphasized “healthy fundamentals” and low inventories, reinforcing confidence in its strategy. Geopolitical tensions added to the bullish tone as US rhetoric toward Venezuela briefly escalated, though optimism over a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal capped gains by raising prospects of sanctions relief and increased supply. Despite November marking a fourth straight monthly decline for oil, the latest decision and rising geopolitical risks have revived buying interest. Traders now weigh whether OPEC+’s stance can offset lingering concerns about global growth and demand softness as the market heads into 2026.

WTI crude oil is flirting with the medium-term downtrend line, and a daily close above it would reinforce a bullish correction toward the 61.40 barrier. An advance higher would expose traders to the 63.15 resistance and the 200-day SMA at 64.20. On the flip side, a move below the uptrend line may switch the bias back to a bearish tone.