Gold: Some downfall is expected after strong uptrend
|Overview: From the last couple of days we are expecting that some neutral to downside signal in the pair where the upside momentum is limited to $1961 level and the downside is limited to $1911 level. So based on the ATR we may say that breakout on either side will give us a new buy or sell signal.
The aggressive traders may go for sell but for a very near term target of $1860 and $1820 only. Gold is looking a bit weak in on the daily along with 4 hourly chart. The way bears are reacting it seems like they are approaching the $1860 level and we may see a further confirmation below the $1900 level which is a psychological level i.e. multi year’s resistance level now converted as a strong support level.
Technical Analysis: From a technical perspective we can see that a parabolic top has been formed on the daily chart which is providing us a bearish signal. A short term downtrend channel has been formed and heading to the downside.
The yellow gold is trading and sustaining below all the major and minor EMA lines on the daily chart and providing us a bearish signal for the time being. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) seems to have regained downside level and a bearish crossover on the MACD indicator is still favoring the bears on a daily chart which is pushing us to have a bearish view on the gold. Odds are in favor of bears and daily to weekly bias remains bearish on gold as long as $1965 level remains intact. The way gold is trading and moving on the daily chart it seems like $1860 and $1810 level is an unfinished target of bears.
What next: The bears are dominating the bulls leading in the game and playing at the front foot and it seems like bears are going to continue with this game and will dominate the bulls in the near term with full of pace and they are approaching the at $1810 level in coming weeks. The $1860 is made or break level can be considered as key support level followed by $1810 where $1965 is a key resistance level followed by $2000 level.
Trade idea: Based on the chart and study above we would suggest that go for sell at 1920-25 for target of $1870 and $1840 level with strict stop loss of $1970 level.
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