GBP/USD renews positive momentum within channel

• GBPUSD strengthens to a two-month high within bullish channel.

• Short-term bias looks positive, but buying appetite might lose pace.

• FOMC minutes due for release today at 18:00 GMT.

• UK S&P Global PMIs and BoE member Pill on the agenda on Wednesday.

Following a short period of consolidation around the 1.2700 level, GBPUSD quickly climbed to a two-month peak of 1.2760, boosted by stronger-than-anticipated core UK CPI figures.

Technically, the pair pierced through the descending line drawn from May 2021, which rejected the bulls a month ago, increasing hopes that the bullish wave could gain additional legs in the coming sessions. The positive crossings in the exponential moving averages (EMAs) provide further endorsement for the market’s upward trajectory. Nevertheless, it may be wise to exercise caution given that the RSI is just below its overbought mark of 70 and the stochastic oscillator seems to have hit its peak above 80.

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the dramatic 2021-2022 sell-off is currently limiting upside pressures near 1.2750 ahead of the upper boundary of the short-term bullish channel at 1.2795. Thus, the bulls must penetrate that obstacle to reach the significant resistance zone at 1.2855, which triggered the reversal in March. Should they succeed, the focus might shift to the broken support trendline from the pandemic lows at 1.2985.

Nonetheless, sellers could remain patient unless the price dips below the 1.2695 area. If that scenario plays out, they might target the 20-day EMA and the former resistance trendline at 1.2612. The channel’s lower boundary and the 200-day EMA could also provide a safety slightly lower at 1.2570. If this floor cracks too, the pair could slump towards the 1.2500 mark or lower to 1.2445.

In brief, the short-term forecast for GBPUSD is positive, especially if it manages to close above the 1.2750-1.2795 border.