Financial astrology: today's market is likely to be very telling
|1. NOVEMBER MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS
1 Q: DJIA 2850 or 2750 NEXT?
A: I don’t know.
Q: WILL MARKETS BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY YEAR END?
A: I do not know.
NOTE: We do believe Monday’s market is likely to be very telling!
We are about 70% hedged and uncomfortable with current market valuations. Hence our plan to continue to raise liquidity and be closer 100% hedged if markets remain in rally mode after Monday next week.
THE 64K QUESTION: WHITHER STOCK MARKETS NEXT: How High is Up? How Low is Down?
SPX 3150 or Higher? SPX 3020 or Lower?
Unless you closely track the horoscopes of President Trump, Chairman Xi AND Fed Chairman Powell, the correct answer is unknown.
OUR VIEWS
Despite recent market action, I rather exit or be hedged short than long markets.
Unless/until there is REAL US/China Trade deal progress, markets will continue be TRADING MARKETS.
Markets currently have had an upside bias, but valuations are increasing unappealing for more than a few stocks.
If/When Xi/Trump French kiss, markets could rally more, but if so, we plan to sell more! If they spit, after we will buy for a XMAS rally.
BEING NAKED LONG OR SHORT IS RISKY: OUR SHORTS ARE HEDGED; OUR CASH POSITIONS ARE RISING!
Proper Valuations:
US$ 97.50 - 98.50
OIL 52-58
CNY ~ 7
SILVER 16-18
IMHO “Improper” Valuations
DJIA > 27500
SP > 3068
NASDAQ > 8400
US 10 Year Bond < 1.90
TIPS > 115
COPPER < 3.20
BITCOIN >12000
GOLD > 1412
BP < 131
FIRST EPISODE OF YOU BETCHA YOUR LIFE (SAVINGS):
Sell SP 2954, Sell 2945 KACHING: Both Covered 2840!
SECOND EPISODE OF YOU BETCHA YOUR LIFE (SAVINGS):
Sell SP 2888, Sell 2880 KACHING: 2812 & 2750 Buy Gold 1286, 1280 KACHING 1400, 1410
THIRD EPISODE OF YOU BETCHA YOUR LIFE (SAVINGS)
Sell SP 2954, Sell 2964, & 3000; KACHING Closed 2940 & 2925 & 2925 Buy Copper 270, 266 & 260
H2 2019 POSITIONAL TRADING:
Copper 274, 266 & [292 Copper open from H1 2019]
Buy SPX 2860, 2900; SOLD 3030 & 3058 SHORT SPX 3057 & 3088 & TBD
HYDE PARK SOAPBOX: Everyone is bullish on stocks all of a sudden — here’s why you shouldn’t be~
KEY DATES: November 18
DJIA: 27800 OR 28000 SUPPORT?
SPX: R1 3100 R2 3150 R3 3200
NASDAQ: 8250 SUPPORT 8500 OR 8800 RESISTANCE?
GOLD: 1450 PIVOT S1 1450 S2 1425 S3 1410 R1 1480 R2 1500 R3 1525
SILVER: 16.50 SUPPORT? 16.80 PIVOT
OIL: 56 PIVOT 54 SUPPORT 58 OR 60 RESISTANCE?
COPPER: STEADY ACCUMULATE: 2020 à 3.50+
US 10 year WATCH
BITCOIN: 9200 RESISTANCE 7500 SUPPORT
2018 CLOSE: DJIA 23327 SPX 2506 & NASDAQ 6635
2017 CLOSE: DJIA 24719 SPX 2673 & NASDA 6903
2016 CLOSE: DJIA 19762 SPX 2238 & NASDAQ 5383
AFUND Fair Value: GOLD $1412
Reduce risk and Focus on Capital Preservation: THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: HEDGE AND PROTECT AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.
2. With the exception of special situations, we would rather exit markets or at least continue to rotate stock sectors into value.
Stock selection remains important. We recommend buying stocks sporting strong cash flows, sound balance sheets and growing dividends.
Actively managed portfolios should continue to outperform index funds in current bifurcated markets and into 2020.
3. Favorite 2020 Sectors: Mining, Selective Health Care (lower cost/better outcome) & Entertainment.
BUSINESS & BANQUETS:
At this weeks Astrologers Fund Natural Resource & Entertainment luncheon, we are featuring four companies:
Two very early stage aggressive speculations Mistango River Resources (MIS: CN) & WONDERFILM (OTC: WDRFF) and
Two more conservative investments: MAG SILVER (MAG: NYSE) & PRETIVM (PVG: NYSE)
Copper remains the most undervalued commodity we track. It is a pawn of the US/China trade spat.
The CNY is circa 7. Currently below 7.02 is positive while above 7.08, it would again be negative for Copper & other markets.
While Silver $20 and higher is possible in the future, we do not see it short term. We do want to see still lower prices, so we can again be on the long side. Ditto with Gold.
However we note gold is generally under favorable astrological influences this year and next.
Gold bugs are happy now that more generalist investors are beginning to join the party: However, we still see it as too expensive just now.
We believe gold valuations will largely sport at or above Fair Value into the Year of the Earth Rat (2020).
Just as it was undervalued for a long time, it CAN and is likely to be overvalued for a LONG time. While fundamentally gold is currently overvalued, in much of the Fall, the astro is positive for gold.
We advise precious metal investors to pay attention to stock selection and only selectively add FALL 2019.
- Gold remains cheap geopolitical crisis insurance.
- For investors who cannot or will not buy the $US currency as well as investors who wish to safely and cheaply hedge their US$ exposure, ONLY GOLD IS AS GOOD AS GOLD!
Gold FV $1412 = Commodity FV: 1358 + Currency FV: 1388 + Inflation Metal FV: 1366 + Crisis FV: 1528.
INVESTORS: We plan to stay LONG into 2020 (recommending a precious metal sector buy/hold rating and occasional hedging, selling or profit taking).
However as traders we may periodically short gold above $1500. For silver our current selling numbers remain $18.10 - $20.
UPDATE: We will be looking to reBUY Gold < 1410-1425 & Silver < 16-16.25.
4. Scott Anderson, chief economist, Bank of the West
“Most of consumers’ additional spending went to gasoline stations, food, and motor vehicles — all necessities for most people. Discretionary retail spending categories like clothing, furniture, sporting goods, and electronics were all noticeably weak.”
HW: So we are NOT living in the best of all possible worlds?
“The S&P 500 has reached into a level of overbought territory that suggests a period of consolidation and increased volatility may lie directly ahead. That said, our still positive core fundamental thesis, current valuation level and history of year-end ramps suggest any weakness should prove limited and temporary and provide an entry point for a move toward our 2020 target of 3,350.”
HW: If so, President Trump will be happy if you are right.
They see global interconnectivity and reverberations of change impacting their portfolios more than traditional business fundamentals, a marked change from the past. The rapidly changing geopolitical environment is the biggest concern for investors around the world.”
Paula Polito, client strategy officer, UBS Global Wealth Management
HW: That may change in/by 2021!
5. Shifting to value stocks just in the nick of time
heres-what-may-drive-stocks-
how-to-take-advantage-of-fear-
6. READER: In your models... Copper Stalled?
HW: We projected it higher at this time, but currently still a prisoner of the US/China Trade spat
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.