Financial astrology: SPX 3155 without a US/China Deal - 3200 or Higher with one?
|1. DECEMBER MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS
1. If you are an investor we suggested selling 50% stocks you don't want to hold into 2020 last Friday or this coming Monday.
Like many, we see 8-10% correction in 2020-- just a question of when and from what Top. While traders should care investors should not-
Bulls & Bears make money pigs get slaughtered!
BULLS ARE COMFORTABLE BULLISH- I AM NOT. Stocks are NOT cheap!
As long as markets are once again above SP 3100 & NASDAQ 8500, MOMO BULLS are not worried unless/until DJIA 28K becomes a firm ceiling!
THE 64K QUESTION: HOW HIGH IS UP?
SPX 3155 without a US/China Deal-- 3200 or Higher with one?
Unless you closely track the horoscopes of President Trump, Chairman Xi AND Fed Chairman Powell, the correct answer is unknown.
Will markets be still higher Year end? I don't know. We do expect some headwinds midweek.
Will they be higher in March? I don't believe so.
OUR VIEWS
Despite recent market action, I rather exit or be hedged short than long markets.
Stock valuations are generally unappealing [not cheap] for most stocks.
Unless/until there is REAL US/China Trade deal progress, markets will continue be TRADING MARKETS.
If/When Xi/Trump French kiss, markets could rally more, but if so, we plan to sell more! If they spit circa December, after another market drop, we would buy for a XMAS rally.
BEING NAKED LONG OR SHORT IS RISKY:
OUR SHORTS ARE HEDGED; OUR CASH POSITIONS ARE NOW CLOSE TO MAXIMUM!
Proper Valuations:
US$ 97.50 - 98.25
CNY ~ 7
SILVER 16-18
US 10 Year Bond 1.84 OB
BP > 130
IMHO “Improper” Valuations
DJIA > 27800
SP > 3069
NASDAQ > 8400
OIL > $58
TIPS > 115
COPPER < 3.20
BITCOIN >1200
GOLD > 1417
VIX < 14
FIRST EPISODE OF YOU BETCHA YOUR LIFE (SAVINGS):
Sell SP 2954, Sell 2945 KACHING: Both Covered 2840!
SECOND EPISODE OF YOU BETCHA YOUR LIFE (SAVINGS):
Sell SP 2888, Sell 2880 KACHING: 2812 & 2750 Buy Gold 1286, 1280 KACHING 1400, 1410
THIRD EPISODE OF YOU BETCHA YOUR LIFE (SAVINGS)
Sell SP 2954, Sell 2964, & 3000; KACHING Closed 2940 & 2925 & 2925 Buy Copper 270, 266 & 260
2019 POSITIONAL TRADING:
Copper 274, 266 & [292 Copper open from H1 2019]
Buy SPX 2860, 2900; KACHING SOLD 3030 & 3058 SHORT SPX 3057 & 3088 & 3149
HYDE PARK SOAPBOX: Ken Fisher on Nixing the VIX
NOTE: THERE WILL BE NO WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK next week
KEY DATES: December 9, 11/12, 15
DJIA: 28000 PIVOT-RESISTANCE?
SPX: 3140 PIVOT S1 3125 S2 3113 S1 3100 3155 OR 3200 RESISTANCE?
NASDAQ: 8600 PIVOT
GOLD: 1450 PIVOT S1 1450 S2 1440 S3 1420 R1 1488 R2 1500 R3 1525
SILVER: S1 1650 S2 16.20 S3 16 S4 15.80
OIL: 56 PIVOT 60 RESISTANCE?
COPPER: STEADY ACCUMULATE: 2020 à 3.50
US 10 year WATCH
BITCOIN: S1 7500 S2 6500 S3 5000 8000 RESISTANCE?
2018 CLOSE: DJIA 23327 SPX 2506 & NASDAQ 6635
2017 CLOSE: DJIA 24719 SPX 2673 & NASDA 6903
2016 CLOSE: DJIA 19762 SPX 2238 & NASDAQ 5383
AFUND Fair Value: GOLD $1417
Reduce risk and Focus on Capital Preservation: THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: HEDGE AND PROTECT AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.
2. BUSINESS & BANQUETS
At the New York Benchmark conference, four companies piqued our interest:
Fortress Biotech (FBIO) & Chembio Diagnostics (CEMI ) will both move to our buy list sometime in 2020 or H1 2021
Added to Watch List: I-Click (ICLK) & Youngevity (YGYI).
Plunge in 3 Hong Kong Stocks Offers a Cautionary Tale.
HW: AFUND SHORT WATCH:
Netflix (NFLX) $325+, Tesla (TSLA) $330-355, Bitcoin (BTC), Beyond Meat (BYND) $85+, BA > $358-380
With the exception of special situations, we would rather exit markets or at least continue to rotate stock sectors into value.
Favorite 2020 Sectors:
Entertainment, Mining, Selective Health Care (lower cost/better outcome) & TECHNOLOGY (Undervalued & Highly Scalable)
CONSIDER BUYING QUALITY SMALL CAP JUNIORS THAT ARE BEING HIT BY TAX LOSS SELLING IN DECEMBER.
Stock selection is important. We recommend stocks sporting strong cash flows, sound balance sheets & growing dividends.
Actively managed portfolios should continue to outperform index funds in current bifurcated markets and into 2020.
3. Copper remains the most undervalued commodity we track. It is a pawn of the US/China trade spat.
The CNY is currently 7.03: Below 7.02 is positive, while above 7.08, it would again be negative for Copper & other markets.
Silver is below recent $16.80 support (Gold support is $1340 & 1350). While Silver $20 and higher is possible in future, we do not see it short term. We do want to see still lower prices- $15.80-$16.20, so we can again be on the long side. Ditto with Gold <$1340.
However we note gold is generally under favorable astrological influences into 2020.
Gold bugs are happy now that some generalist investors are beginning to join the party: However, we still see it as too expensive just now.
We believe gold valuations will largely sport at or above Fair Value into the Year of the Earth Rat (2020).
Just as it was undervalued for a long time, it CAN and is likely to be overvalued for a LONG time. While fundamentally gold is currently overvalued, in much of the Fall, the astro is positive for gold.
We advise precious metal investors to pay attention to stock selection and only selectively add FALL 2019.
- Gold remains cheap geopolitical crisis insurance.
- For investors who cannot or will not buy the $US currency as well as investors who wish to safely and cheaply hedge their US$ exposure, ONLY GOLD IS AS GOOD AS GOLD!
Gold FV $1417 = Commodity FV: 1358 + Currency FV: 1388 + Inflation Metal FV: 1374 + Crisis FV: 1540.
INVESTORS: We plan to stay LONG into 2020 (recommending a precious metal sector buy/hold rating and occasional hedging, selling or profit taking).
However as traders we may periodically short gold above $1500. For silver our current selling numbers remain $18.20 - $20.
UPDATE: We are looking to reBUY Gold < 1415-1425 & Silver < 16-16.25.
4. “Investors’ worst fears of a recession are now fully in the rearview mirror.”
Michael Arone, chief investment strategist, State Street Global Advisors
HW: Until……
“There is no doubt, there is this fear that things will get worse and stocks will tumble, but then there’s a lot of greed, what if we keep on going up?” Donald Selkin, chief market strategist, Newbridge Securities Corp
HW: Then we are likely to see a market correction greater than 8-10% sometime next year.
“Gold cannot fully replace government bonds in a portfolio, but the case to reallocate a portion of normal bond exposure to gold is as strong as ever. We still see upside in gold as late cycle concerns and heightened political uncertainty will likely support investment demand.”
Sabine Schels, analyst, Goldman Sachs
HW: A smart partial relocation.
5. S&P 500 Melt-Up Is So Hot It’s Making Cheerleaders Into Skeptics
Where will the S&P 500 go in 2020? Here are the most bullish and bearish strategists.
There are two versions of the S&P 500 index — this is the better investment
6. READER: Have they spit yet or are we waiting for mid-December cycle low?
HW: I would ideally like to see a successful rest of December lows to 3068 or 3050 but dont know. Later next week is likely to be another down test.
How low and if even below SPX 3100 remains to be seen as it is largely subject to TT (Trump Tweets).
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