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Analysis

Exuberant Silver investors on hair trigger, susceptible to overhype

A rumor has been circulating on social media that the U.S. Mint is PLUM OUT of silver... implying silver will soon become "unobtanium" across the board. The evidence loosely backing the claims is a notice on the U.S. Mint website, which is, indeed, not selling certain collectible silver items for now. 

Here's the U.S. Mint's statement, 

“Notice: Due to rapidly rising metal costs, silver numismatic (collectible) products have been temporarily removed from sale as we evaluate pricing across our entire numismatic portfolio. Products will be placed back on sale as soon as prices are adjusted. American Eagle Silver bullion coins remain available for purchase through our network of authorized purchasers.”

Since the price of silver has increased by nearly 200% in the past year, in these extremely bullish days, this has put a lot of pressure on the whole industry, and that includes government “enterprises” in the space.

When spot prices continue to rise, those respective websites must update their pricing constantly so they do not sell at a loss... particularly bullion-focused sellers like Money Metals. 

And with the sharp rise in the price of silver -- nearly doubling in 4 months, the fixed prices of the U.S. Mint’s high-premium "burnished" and "proof" coins were suddenly no longer twice the silver spot price, but priced at or below current spot!

The U.S. Mint does not sell the bullion American Eagle coins directly to the public… what the public CAN purchase on the U.S. Mint’s website is all the kind of stuff that is not really a silver "investment" at all -- but spiffy, supposedly “collectible” items.

The simple fact is that flat-footed government officials and bureaucrats in this Washington, D.C., pseudo-enterprise are incapable of gracefully adjusting to market fluctuations. It is not that I am anti-government, per se, in making this statement, but rather that it is a practical outcome of intentional policies in government. 

Government generally involves bureaucratic meetings with senior officials, and possibly internal votes and rule changes, to react to pretty much anything.

In order for the Mint to adjust to the growing demand in silver and silver coin buying, and to continue profiteering off of the public with their high-margin “collectibles,” government managers needed to put a pause on silver sales until they can determine new product pricing that may last for a while, such as through fiscal 2026.           

Therefore, the key takeaway about the Mint’s decision to stop selling its marketable items is really this – governments are downright terrible at business and probably ought to get out of it. In this case, an actual business would simply adjust its pricing on the fly. 

Conspiracy theories, hearsay, and precious metal dealer hype may have contributed to a misunderstanding that there is little to no silver available in the market.

Make no mistake, what's happening with silver lately is certainly momentous -- and the outlook remains quite bullish.

But it's wise to try to tune out the over-sensationalized hype the best you can. There is simply no need to buy silver coins from a government source that, more often than not, overcharges for its products anyway. 

Instead, embrace the free market approach -- one that has dynamic pricing, transparent premiums, and can swiftly adjust to the ebbs and flows of market demand.  

A similarly juicy rumor is currently making the rounds regarding China’s limitations on silver exports, but this, too, has turned out to be overstated, as our analyst Mike Maharrey explained.  

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