EURUSD: Prefer to sell rallies
|EURUSD: 1.0595
While the dailies remain negative, the short term momentum indicators are turning to point a little higher today, with the 4 hour charts showing a degree of bullish divergence, so some caution is warranted on the downside. If so, on the topside, above the session high of 1.0606, minor resistance lies at 1.0630 and comes ahead of minor Fibo resistance at around 1.0650. Beyond here, we could see another squeeze back the 7 Apr high of 1.0666, to the 5/6 Mar high of 1.0683/88 and to the 31 Mar high of 1.0701. The daily momentum indicators still look negative, suggesting further losses ahead at some stage. The session low of 1.0570 will provide the initial support, but below there could then see a run towards the Fibo level at 1.0555 and then towards 1.0525 and to the March double-bottom lows seen at 1.0494.
As before, selling rallies is preferred, with a SL placed above 1.0685 but looking for a run towards 1.0500 and eventually lower. Given the lack of any major data today, it could be rangebound, unless politics intervenes. Note that the daily cloud top/bottom is at 1.0615/1.0585, which may cover it again today although for the next few hours a minor topside squeeze would not surprise. The ZEW and EU Industrial Production will be minor risk factors today.
| 24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies | Medium Term: Mildly bearish | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.0701/1.0695 | 31 Mar high/ (38.2% of 1.0906/1.0570) | 1.0570 | Session low |
| 1.0683/88 | 6 Mar high/5 Apr high | 1.0555 | (61.8% of 1.0340/1.0906) |
| 1.0666 | (7 Apr high)/200 HMA | 1.0525 | 9 Mar low |
| 1.0648 | (23.6% of 1.0906/1.0570 ) | 1.0500 | Minor |
| 1.0630 | Minor | 1.0494 | 22 Feb/2 Mar low |
Economic data highlights will include:
German/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey, EU Industrial Production, US NFIB Business Optimism Index, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory
Interested in EURUSD technicals? Check out the key levels
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