Eurozone: Inflation in sight?
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Despite the cyclical recovery, core inflation has not shown any convincing signs of picking up yet.
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Based on current estimates of structural unemployment and recent job market trends, however, inflation is bound to pick up fairly soon: the European economy should enter an inflationary phase between Q4 2017 and Q1 2018.
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Yet the jobless rate might be giving only a partial picture of labour underutilisation.
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Using a broader measure – including involuntary part-time workers and "shadow unemployment" – excess capacity might be twice as high as the official unemployment rate.
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