EUR/USD Forecast: Vomiting Camel is stronger than oversold conditions - further falls ahead?
|- The EUR/USD has hit fresh 2018 lows below $1.1900 as the US Dollar continues marching forward.
- The potential pullout of Trump from the Iran deal is casting clouds on markets.
- The pair is at oversold territory, but the "vomiting camel" pattern seems to be taking over.
The EUR/USD is trading below $1.1900, the lowest since the last days of 2017. The primary driver is the US Dollar. Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke at a panel in Zurich and confirmed the path of gradual rate hikes which came as no surprise to markets. Nevertheless, Powell's speech was a reminder that the Fed remains on track to raise interest rates, with a very high probability of doing that in the June meeting.
He said that markets are well-aligned with these expectations, but apparently, the US Dollar was not fully pricing that in. While Powell did not provide any earth-shattering news, his speech triggered another US Dollar rally.
Earlier in the day, Germany published mixed figures. Industrial Output jumped by 1% MoM and 3.2% YoY in March, both above expectations. On the other hand, imports dropped. On Monday, all the euro-zone figures such as German Factory Orders and the Sentix Investor Confidence missed, so having mixed data is already an improvement. Nevertheless, the common currency is overwhelmed by the greenback.
After UK traders enjoyed a holiday on Monday, they are back to full force today. The absence of French traders due to vacation there is not having a significant impact on overall liquidity.
Markets are gearing up for the announcement by Donald Trump on the Iran Deal due at 18:00 GMT. The US President is expected to announce the scrapping of the deal by the US by not waiving the sanctions for another 180 days. By doing so, the world's No. 1 economy will have pulled out of the deal, leaving the EU, China, and Russia to try to handle it.
The expected decision has already pushed oil prices higher but the actual move may still have an adverse impact on stocks and thus could slow the advance of the US Dollar. If Trump still stays in the deal, officially known as the JCPOA, the US Dollar could extend its rally.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The RSI remains below 30, indicating oversold territory for the pair. This should have triggered a bounce, but so far all we have seen is a "dead cat bounce," a limited upside move that implies further falls.
Another pattern that emerges is of a "vomiting camel": two bumps up in the chart, similar to a camel's back, before an ongoing downfall similar to a vomit.
A less colorful pattern is a steep downward channel, demonstrated by the thick black lines on the chart.
The low so far has been $1.1882 at the time of writing. Support awaits at $1.1820, a support line from December 2017. Further down, $1.1710 is worth mentioning.
On the topside, $1.1915 was the January low, and it is followed by the round number of $1.2000 that looks more distant now.
More: EUR/USD faces adamant resistance and will have a tough time recovering — Confluence Detector
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