EUR/USD Forecast: Tightening range as winter holidays loom
|EUR/USD Current Price: 1.0613
- A better market mood is barely enough to keep EUR/USD ranging above 1.0600.
- US CB Consumer Confidence is expected to have improved to 101.0 in December.
- EUR/USD keeps losing bullish potential, but bears are nowhere to be found.
EUR/USD consolidative phase continues on Wednesday, with the pair trading a handful of pips above the 1.0600 threshold. Volatility keeps shrinking ahead of the winter holidays and without first-tier events in sight. The US Dollar benefits from a better perception of risk, as most global indexes trade in the green. At the same time, US Treasury yields remain stable at around Tuesday’s close, with the 10-year note currently yielding 3.68%.
So far, the macroeconomic calendar included the German Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey, which improved to -37.8 in January from -40.1 in January. The United States published Mortgage Applications for the week ended December 16, up 0.9%. Throughout the American session, the US will publish November Existing Home Sales and December CB Consumer Confidence, expected to have improved to 101.0 from 100.2 in November.
EUR/USD short-term technical outlook
The EUR/USD pair trades flat at around 1.0615, and the daily chart shows that the upward momentum eases, but bears are still nowhere to be found. The pair keeps developing above all of its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) maintaining its bullish slope well above the longer ones. The Momentum indicator turned south and approaches its midline from above, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains flat at around 63. Chances of a steeper decline are well-limited, even if the pair breaks below 1.0580, the immediate support level.
The pair is neutral in the 4-hour chart. EUR/USD remains stuck around a mildly bearish 20 SMA, while the longer moving averages keep heading north below the current level. Finally, technical indicators remain stuck around their midlines, turning marginally lower but without directional strength.
Support levels: 1.0580 1.0535 1.0480
Resistance levels: 1.0650 1.0695 1.0740
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