EUR/USD Forecast: bullish theme back in play, EZ PMIs/ECB minutes eyed
|The US Dollar nursed its losses through the Asian session on Thursday, while the EUR/USD pair built on overnight strong gains back above the 1.1800 handle. The greenback tumbled overnight to over one-month lows, weighed down by disappointing US durable goods orders and a mixed message from the minutes of the last FOMC meeting on Oct.31-Nov.1. The minutes reaffirmed December rate hike move but revealed policymakers' concerns over persistently low inflation and cast doubts on the pace of rate increases in 2018.
In what could possibly a quiet session, ahead of Thanksgiving holiday in the US, the release of preliminary Eurozone PMI prints for November and the ECB monetary policy meeting accounts (minutes) might infuse some volatility around the EUR crosses.
From a technical perspective, the pair this week rebounded from a downward sloping trend-line resistance break-point, now turned support. A subsequent move back closer to monthly tops now seems to suggest that the prior bullish trend is back in play. Hence, the upward trajectory now seems more likely to get extended back towards 1.1860 level (mid-Nov. highs) ahead of the 1.1900 round figure mark.
On the flip side, any retracement slide now seems to find immediate support near the 1.1800 handle and any follow-through weakness might now be limited near the 1.1765-55 region.
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