December spending momentum slows after Black Friday surge
|Adjusting for seasonality and prices, spending excluding energy decreased 0.8% in December compared to November, driven by lower retail and services consumption. Real spending began the year on a downward trend but picked up during the summer, with recent momentum giving a total growth of 1.9% from 2024 to 2025.
Real retail spending fell 0.6% from November to December, reflecting lower consumption across most goods categories, with only sporting goods recording slight growth in real terms. Overall, nominal spending fell by 0.9% m/m, more than real spending, with part of the real decline offset by falling prices. However, higher Black Friday spending in November may have offset some goods expenditure in December, as a lot of holiday shopping was moved forward. When including Black Week as part of the Christmas period, nominal Christmas spending - i.e. retail sales excluding groceries, 1.9% higher in 2025 compared to 2024.
Real service spending decreased slightly across most categories in December. Travel-related services, such as tourist attractions, amusement parks and airlines, experienced the sharpest declines. However, several service categories countered this trend, with real spending on hotels and motels rising by an impressive 7.8% m/m. Spending in theatres and concerts also increased significantly, though this sector remains historically volatile.
Going into 2026, we expect households to increasingly translating real wage growth into higher consumption, as they get a significant additional boost from lower taxes and duties.
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