Cycle Trading: Still -- Waiting on a Trend
|Last week we discussed how stocks are caught between the 10 week MA and the 50 week MA. And that a there will need to be a convincing break either above the 10 week MA or below the 50 week MA trending move to develop.
And even though stocks rallied for 1.10% on Monday, a trending move still eludes us. So today I wanted to drill down to the daily chart.
The status of the daily cycle is not clear. Stocks satisfied some of the requirements for a daily cycle low by managing to close above the 10 day MA and turning it higher. However stocks have not broke above the declining trend line. If day 44 was the DCL that would make Monday day 15, which would be getting a bit late to expect any sustained break out. What is clear is that stocks been closing below the lower daily cycle band, indicating that they are in a daily downtrend, which is associated with an intermediate cycle decline. Stocks will remain in their daily downtrend until they can close back above the upper daily cycle band.
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