Cycle Trading: A Closer look at stocks
|Stocks dropped 2.78% on Tuesday making it just over 7% since Wednesday's close.
A 7% stop over three days is a very scary move. But since the daily cycle was so extremely right translated it left for little time for stocks to drop into its daily cycle low.
Stocks have managed to turn the 10 day MA lower, which is something we need to see before a DCL can form. Tuesday was day 59 for the daily equity cycle. Only twice since 2014 have stocks stretched past 59 days for its daily cycle, so stocks are overdue for a daily cycle low. And the 50 % fib level is aligned with the 50 day MA, making it a likely place for the Fed to step in to support the market. If stocks form a swing low off of support from the 50 day MA that will have good odds of marking the DCL.
Stocks have been in a daily uptrend that has been characterized by highs forming above the upper daily cycle band and lows forming above the lower daily cycle band. If stocks manage to form a swing low above the lower daily cycle and then stocks will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.
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