Analysis

Currency market: Ten year yield and USD/JPY

The 10 year Treasury yield closed Friday at 1.6146. As posted September 29, the 10 year traded then 1.51 and the next big break for higher prices was located at exactly 1.6146.

A break higher targets the 25 point range from 1.6146 to 1.8696. Below 1.6146 targets a 38 point range from 1.6146 to 1.2290 against 1.4218. The 5 year average is located at 1.9321 and 1.8696 is required to break and  targets a 6 point range.

The 10 year and 2 spread runs currently 1.2922 and 1.56 for the 10 and 3 month. The 2 year traded last week 6 points and straight up from 0.2603 to 0.3238 while the 10 year traded from 1.454 to 1.616 or 16 points.

10 year daily trade

Here is the point where interest rates predict interest rates the same manner and principle as exchange rates predict exchange rates.

Next target on the bottom is located at 1.6045 and topside targets 1.6247 then 1.6286.

 USD/JPY traveled last week from 110.80 to 112.26 and highs today at 113.02. Any price last week was overbought from  111.51. USD/JPY traded 151 overbought pips. from low 113.00's and high 112.00's, short is the only trade and targets easily 150 pips lower. 

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