Analysis

China returns from lunar new year break fuelled by trade optimism; Wall Street joins in the party

US index futures are surging higher early in the European session, buoyed by some renewed optimism over China trade talks. Delegations from Beijing and Washington meet again this week for the next round of negotiations and although there’s some concern that an agreement won’t be achieved before the March 1st deadline for tariff increases, expectations are building that an extension will be seen. The fact that US markets have managed to gain ground during a rather lacklustre earnings season is also being taken as a buy signal for stocks, again helping bolster gains at least for now.

Economic and corporate data is relatively thin on the ground today, although NASDAQ listed Chinese micro-blogging site Weibo will be under scrutiny when it releases its earnings before the market opens. Twitter certainly impressed last week and although very different political backdrops make comparisons between the two almost meaningless, there’s a degree of optimism that Weibo can continue to deliver earnings growth in the future. The quiet macroeconomic calendar is set to prevail for some time yet, too, so changes in sentiment when it comes to the big picture topics such as global trade could yet prove key in determining if these gains are sustainable.

Ahead of the open we’re calling the DOW up 86 at 25192 and the S&P up 10 at 2718.

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