China GDP edges to a 1-year high despite soft industrial output

Asia Mid-Session Market Update: China GDP edges to a 1-year high despite soft industrial output; Markets await Trump's inauguration address

US Session Highlights

- (US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 234K V 252KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 2.05M V 2.08ME (unemployment benefits fell to near lowest level since 1970s)

- (US) DEC HOUSING STARTS: 1.226M V 1.188ME; BUILDING PERMITS: 1.210M V 1.225ME

- (US) JAN PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK: 23.6 V 15.3E

- (US) DOE CRUDE: +2.3M V 0ME; GASOLINE: +6.0M V +1.5ME; DISTILLATE: -1.0M V 0ME

- (US) Treasury Sec nominee Mnuchin: US trade agreements should be about growing exports, not about limiting imports; US dollar is very, very strong

 

US markets on close: Dow -0.4%, S&P500 -0.4%, Nasdaq -0.3%

- Best Sector in S&P500: Industrials

- Worst Sector in S&P500: Utilities

- Biggest gainers: CSX +23.4%, NSC +4.1%, NFLX +3.9%, COG +3.7%, MNK +3.4%

- Biggest losers: CHK -5.2%, JBHT -3.7%, NUE -3.6%, PBI -3.3%, NWL -3.3%

- At the close: VIX 12.8 (+0.3pts); Treasuries: 2-yr 1.22% (flat), 10-yr 2.46% (+7bps), 30-yr 3.03% (+4bps)

 

US movers afterhours

- SWKS: Reports Q1 $1.61 v $1.58e, R$914.3M v $902Me; initiates $500M share buyback (3.4% of market cap)- Guides Q2 $1.40 v $1.38e, Rev $840M v $810Me; +7.7% afterhours

- ECYT: Reports Q3 -$0.21 v -$0.27e, R$33K v $33K y/y Cash, cash equivalents and investments were $146.7 million at September 30, 2016, compared to $180.3 million at September 30, 2015, and $173.6 million at December 31, 2015; +3.1% afterhours

- AXP: Reports Q4 $0.91 v $0.98e, R$8.02B v $7.94Be; -1.6% afterhours

- IBM: Reports Q4 $5.01 v $4.89e, R$21.8B v $21.6Be; -2.3% afterhours

- BMY: Provides regulatory update in First-line Lung Cancer; Decided Not to pursue an accelerated regulatory pathway for the combination of Opdivo plus Yervoy; BMY -5.0%, MRK +4.7% afterhours

 

Asia Key economic data:

- (CN) CHINA Q4 GDP Q/Q: 1.7% V 1.7%E; Y/Y: 6.8% (1-year high) V 6.7%E; 2016 GDP 6.7% V 6.7%E

- (CN) CHINA DEC FIXED ASSETS EX RURAL YTD Y/Y: 8.1% (4-month low) V 8.3%E

- (CN) CHINA DEC RETAIL SALES Y/Y: 10.9% (1-year high) V 10.7%E; 2016: 10.4% V 10.4%E

- (CN) CHINA DEC INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 6.0% (5-month low) V 6.1%E; 2016: 6.0% V 6.0%E

- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q4 WESTPAC EMPLOYMENT CONFIDENCE INDEX: 112.7 V 110.1 PRIOR

- (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV HIA NEW HOME SALES M/M: +6.1% V -8.5% PRIOR

- (US) NPD: Dec video games sales $2.8B, -15% y/y

 

Asia Session Notable Observations, Speakers and Press

- Asian equity indices continue to trade mixed as sentiment is rangebound in anticipation of power transition in the US heralding greater clarity on economic priority of the new administration; Australia was one of the more notable decliners as mining shares stumbled, while Nikkei managed to preserve a modest gain despite the rally in JPY early in the day.

- FX majors have been more volatile, with comments by incoming Treasury Sec Mnuchin calling USD "very very strong" weighing on USD late in US hours, followed by somewhat less hawkish Fed Chair Yellen stressing continued uncertainty on the fiscal side and ongoing short-term headwinds. USD/JPY fell over 50pips from the highs. AUD/USD saw its best levels near 0.7590 after a slight beat in China economic data.

- China economic data were mostly steady, as Q4 GDP edged up to 6.8% after 3 straight quarters at 6.7% growth; Fixed investment growth slowed, mainly due to a slight retreat in property sales value growth; Industrial output also hit a 5-month low, with slower growth in power generation, steel, and NatGas. NBS officials noted debt levels and liquidity are still in reasonable shape, though the economy is facing risks both internally and externally.

China:

- (CN) Stats Bureau: Consumption accounted for 64.6% of 2016 GDP; Services sector accounted for 51.6%; Surveyed unemployment in 31 top cities was 4.95%; Foundation for stabilization and improvement in China economy still not solid; Debt levels are reasonable; Liquidity in reasonable range.

Japan:

- (JP) Japan PM Abe: Looking to strengthen alliance with US under incoming Pres Trump.

- (JP) Japan PM Abe's adviser Hamada: Japan does not have to cooperate with US Pres Trump just to please him - press

- (JP) BOJ Dep Gov Nakaso: BOJ to enhance schemes to provide FX liquidity

- (JP) Japan Fin Min Aso: Undesirable to have extreme volatility in FX moves

Australia/New Zealand:

- (NZ) S&P affirms New Zealand sovereign ratings, outlook remains stable

 

Asian Equity Indices/Futures (00:00ET)

- Nikkei +0.3%, Hang Seng -0.6%, Shanghai Composite +0.6%, ASX200 -0.7%, Kospi -0.3%

- Equity Futures: S&P500 +0.1%; Nasdaq +0.2%; Dax +0.1%; FTSE100 +0.1%

 

FX ranges/Commodities/Fixed Income (00:00ET)

- EUR 1.0650-1.0695; JPY 114.50-115.10; AUD 0.7555-0.7585; NZD 0.7175-0.7225

- Feb Gold +0.4% at $1,207/oz; Feb Crude Oil +0.3% at $52.29/brl; Mar Copper +0.3% at $2.62/lb

- USD/CNY: (CN) PBOC SETS YUAN MID POINT AT 6.8693 V 6.8568 PRIOR (2nd straight weaker setting)

- (CN) PBOC to inject combined CNY110B in 14-day and 28-day reverse repos v CNY250B prior; Injects net CNY1.13T this week (highest since 2008) v injected CNY100B prior

- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥400B in 1-3yr JGBs, ¥420B in 3-5yr JGBs, ¥190B in 10-25yr JGBs, and ¥110B in JGBs with maturity over 25-yr

- (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$600M in 3.25% 2029 Bonds; avg yield: 3.029%; bid-to-cover: 4.98x (highest in 10 years)

 

Asia equities/Notables/movers by sector

- Consumer discretionary: Kirin Holdings Co 2503.JP +2.0% (no decision made on Brazil operations); Lotte Shopping Co 023530.KR +5.8%, Lotte Confectionery Co 004990.KR +8.5%, Lotte Chilsung Beverage Co 005300.KR +3.4% (restructuring review); Sydney Airport SYD.AU +2.4% (Dec traffic data)

- Consumer staples: Asaleo Care AHY.AU -3.9% (Citi cuts rating)

- Financials: CITIC Securities 6030.HK -0.5% (FY16 result); Guotai Junan International Holdings 601211.CN +0.7% (H share listing application); Sealand Securities 000750.CN -6.5% (trading resumes); Westpac Banking Corp WBC.AU -1.3%, ANZ Bank ANZ.AU -1.3%, Commonwealth Bank of Australia CBA.AU -1.2% (Citi cuts rating)

- Industrials: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries 7011.JP +1.4% (considers delaying MJR delivery); Toyota Industries Group 6201.JP -0.5% (Credit Suisse cuts rating)

- Technology: Sony Corp 6758.JP -0.7% (unit sales speculation); Leshi Internet Info & Tech Co Beijing 300104.CN +7.1% (trading resumes); Asahi Glass 5201.JP +0.9% (raises guidance)

- Materials: Aluminum Corporation of China 2600.HK -2.5% (prelim FY16 result); Resolute Mining RSG.AU -2.8% (CFO resigns), Sims Metal Management SGM.AU -5.4% (Citi cuts rating); Regis Resources RRL.AU -0.6% (Macquarie cuts rating); BHP Billiton BHP.AU -1.0% (reached agreement with Brazil Federal prosecutor on Samarco)

- Energy: China Oilfield Services 2883.HK -1.7% (prelim FY16 result); Horizon Oil HZN.AU -1.6% (UBS cuts rating); Santos STO.AU -1.2% (Q4 result)

- Healthcare: CSPC Pharmaceutical Group 1093.HK +6.3%, Sino Biopharmaceutical 1177.HK +4.9%; CSL CSL.AU +2.8% (Morgan Stanley raises rating)