Central bank to keep rates stable
|Stability of rates broadly expected. Central bank to publish new growth and inflation projection. Disappointing PMI reading for October puts into question economic growth in quarters to come. 2Y yield reacted sharply to weaker PMI and inflation.
Watch this week
November 4 | PMI dissapoints in October
The PMI arrived at 45.6 in October, marking the strongest downturn in manufacturing since mid-2009. Although the PMI has not been the best gauge of GDP growth, October's reading suggests a rather pessimistic outlook for the quarters to come and the scale of the slowdown could be bigger than previously anticipated. Moreover, the expectations for production (12-month outlook) are the weakest since the series began in 2012. We keep our call for 3Q19 GDP growth at 4.0% y/y (due next week) but a slide below 4% cannot be ruled out.
November 6 | Central bank to stay dovish
The MPC meeting should bring no surprises, as it is broadly expected that rates will remain stable. Moreover, the basic findings of the new inflation and growth projection will be presented. We are less optimistic than the National Bank and thus expect to see a downward revision of the growth projection. The inflation path will depend on assumptions regarding next year's energy prices development.
Last week's highlights
Flash inflation arrived at 2.5% y/y (0.2% m/m) in October.
Market developments
Bond market drivers | 2Y yield reacts to lower inflation and PMI
Last week, development on the short end of the curve was more interesting, with the 2Y yield going down by almost 10bp. Low flash inflation and the weak PMI reading for October (released today in the morning) put downward pressure on the 2Y yield, reflecting the gloomier outlook. Despite this, FRAs hold steady, pointing to stable monetary policy in the months to come. On the long end, the 10Y yield went down by around 5bp during the week closely flowing German Bund development. The spread over the 10Y Bund narrowed further and holds below 235bp. The central bank meeting should be a non-event for the markets, as stability of rates is broadly expected. The yield curve might get some direction from the new inflation and growth projection, especially in light of the weak PMI reading. As far as global markets are concerned, there is no major macro news this week.
FX market drivers | Zloty returns to downward trend
After short-lived stabilization, the EURPLN returned to its downward move as the zloty appreciated by almost 0.6% against the EUR over the course of the week. Despite lower liquidity at the end of the week (due to the public holiday), the zloty benefited from global risk-on mode and strengthened further. We see the recent strong appreciation of the zloty as a market overreaction and there is likely not much space for further strengthening. This week, the EURUSD will likely get its direction from last week's important US releases, namely the labor market report and the ISM index.
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