And the Golden Globe Goes to- Barack Obama of the US!

In the category of "World Leaders That Live in La La Land" the nominees are: (I couldn't let this go.....)

Kim Jung Un - Of North Korea, Fidel Castro - Cuba (posthumous), Vlad Putin - Russia, Barack Obama - United States, Hugo Chavez - Venezuela (posthumous)

And the Golden Globe goes to.......Barack Obama - United States!  What a performance last night in his final farewell address to the nation and the world......Outstanding!  Look how much better off the country is 8 yrs later.

 As he tells us - Job creation has NEVER been better (if you want a part time job) , wages have NEVER been stronger (if you make minimum wage) , the stock mkt has NEVER been higher (thanks to the FED), housing has recovered (thanks to the FED), unemployment has NEVER been lower (thanks to the fact that they don't count the people who have fallen off the radar or are seeking full-time work), race relations have NEVER been better  - and all because of his leadership!  8 yrs ago he said "Yes we can" and last night he said "Yes we did!"  Oh boy - Did he ever!  But that was then, this is now.....

Today at 11 am -  we will get to see President Elect Donald Trump give his "Hey look!  It's me" speech.....Now while many of you may not tune in because it is not 'prime time' - we can be sure that the mkt will be listening to what he has to say....

OK...so yesterday - stocks finished mixed - while NASDAQ closed at another record high -  ahead of the Obama Farewell address and today's remarks by Trump.....(Nasdaq has been helped by the renewed interest in the biotech/healthcare sectors). Investors and traders trying to square themselves ahead of both these events as well as the coming events set to go off on Friday....

Eco data on Friday (which by the way is Friday the 13th - not that I am superstitious at all) includes: PPI - exp of 0.3%. Ex food and energy of 0.1% m/m - PPI y/y is expected to be +1.6%, Ex food and energy of +1.8%, Retail Sales of +0.7%, Ex autos of +0.5% and Ex autos and gas of +0.4%, Business inventories are expected to be +0.6%.  All of these reports will set the tone for 2017 and be the baseline for President Elect Trump to measure his success.....8 yrs out when we hear his Farewell address to the nation in January of 2025.....

Earnings are on the minds of everyone now....and yesterday we saw some angst show up in trading of IBM - as that stock took a hit - fell $2 on renewed concerns that the strong dollar will be a drag on earnings.....Ok - we talked about this...this is NOT IBM's first rodeo with a strong dollar, investors know this and the long term investor has already allocated for this possibility.

  I mean do you think that Ginni Rometty (IBM CEO) is going to come out and say

- "Oh boy, that strong dollar really caught us by surprise!"  Come On!!!  (And btw - if analysts get caught off guard by the stronger dollar - then find a new analyst..)

Think about it......It is the trader types that get more uneasy as they are more concerned with what happens in the next 10 mins vs. the next ten years. So as we move closer to any announcement we will begin to see the whites of their eyes.....Look - if you are a long-term investor and you like IBM - then you love the fact that the earnings take a hit because of a strong dollar and NOT because there is something else fundamentally wrong with the stock.....If you like IBM at $165 and you think it is going to $265 over time - then love the fact that the trader types blow out of their trading positions forcing the stock temporarily lower which only provides an opportunity for you.

And so expect to hear more about the strong dollar blah, blah, blah......as if we haven't heard enough already.....we get it....multinationals will most likely take a hit due to the dollar - but if you like GE, JNJ, KO, BA, CAT etc....and the fundamental story has NOT changed then what are worried about? 

The dollar as discussed in yesterday's note - has cooled a bit after the run it had post-election.....and it is just waiting to see how earnings start to shape up...if they are on target for 3+% growth and guidance is robust (as expected) then that will help justify another FED move (earlier vs. later)  at some point down the line and the dollar will surely react (move higher) as rates rise and the economy improves....If earnings appear weaker or the guidance appears weaker then that will put pressure on the dollar and cause the FED to possibly pause for a bit to get more data as winter turns to spring. 

Oil - took a beating yesterday...falling $2 as the reality of INCREASING supplies is running contrary to the OPEC plan -Oil has fallen more than 6% since Monday - but is trying hard to rally this morning ahead of the weekly gov't inventory stat....US producers ramping up production.....(we discussed this)  but this did and will put pressure on the energy sector as oil tests the $50 mark again...  If it holds right here - then energy will be fine....

US futures are flat this morning....No real eco data to speak of - Mortgage Applications were up 5.8%......but do not expect that to be a mkt mover at all.....- The analysis will be about what The Donald said and what that then means for the first 100 days of his presidency. 

I expect to see the mkt remain in it's current range - until we get into the thick of earnings season which begins on Friday.....
 

Take Good Care
KP

Slow Roasted Sirloin

This is a great dish - not difficult at all - and in the end presents beautifully for an intimate dinner party. 
 
Get yourself a nice sirloin roast - 5 / 6 lbs.....season with salt and let rest for 20 mins on the counter.  While this is resting, slice fresh mushrooms,  chop 2 lg carrots, 2 celery ribs, 1 large onion, select a nice bottle of red wine ( I use a pinot noir), a can of low sodium beef broth and a can of tomato paste.
 
After resting - season beef with pepper and sear it in a frying pan with Olive Oil making sure to brown on all sides even allowing a crust to form.
 
When complete - place in a V rack in a roasting pan and place in a preheated 275 degree oven uncovered.  Allow to cook for 2 1/2 to 3 hrs or when ready according to the meat thermometer.
 
After putting the roast in the oven - return to the frying pan - add the chopped veggies to the oil and sauté until tender - 8 / 10 mins. Add tomato paste and mix.....add 1/2 bottle of the red wine and stir, then pour yourself a glass - bring to boil and let the alcohol burn off a bit...3 mins.  Add the beef broth and simmer - stirring occasionally.  Do not let it dry out...if necessary - you can always add a bit more broth.  After about 10 mins....taste to make sure you like it.  If so - puree 1/2 this mixture and return to the sauté pan.  turn off heat. Set aside.
 
When beef is ready - take out of oven and let it rest for 10 mins - covered in foil.  Reheat the sauce...thinly slice the roast and arrange on plate - top with sauce.  This should be served with either mashed potatoes, or roasted potatoes, a green veggie - like peas (something different) and a large mixed green salad - dressed in a red wine/vinegar dressing. 

  
Buon Appetito.