American FX Outlook: US durable goods orders and Fed speakers headline
|What you need to know before markets open
- German Ifo business confidence indicator rose slightly after falling off multi-year highs for five consecutive months.
- The UK first quarter GDP revision remained unchanged with growth 0.1% Q/Q and 1.2% y/y.
- The Sveriges Riksbank celebrates 350th anniversary with high-fliers including Fed’s chairman Powell, Bank of England Governor Carney and the ECB’s Coeuré talking about the past, present, and future of monetary policy.
- The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is hosting regional Fed presidents for discussion about technology in business in Dallas, Texas.
Friday's upcoming market moving events
- RBA Assistant Governor Michele Bullock is scheduled to speak at De Nederlandsche Bank's Housing Market seminar, in Amsterdam at 12:00 GMT.
- The US durable goods orders are seen falling -1.4% m/m while core durable goods orders excluding transportation are set to rise 0.5% m/m in April.
- ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeuré participates in a high-level panel at Sveriges Riksbank’s 350th-anniversary celebration in Stockholm at 13:15 GMT.
- Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell participates in a panel discussion on "Financial Stability and Central Bank Transparency" at Sveriges Riksbank’s 350th-anniversary celebration in Stockholm at 13:20 GMT.
- The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney participates in a panel discussion on "The future of central banking?" at Sveriges Riksbank’s 350th-anniversary celebration in Stockholm at 13:20 GMT.
- The US Michigan consumer sentiment index is expected to remain unchanged at 98.38 in May.
- Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans is expected to participate in a panel discussion with Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan and Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas conference entitled "Technology- Enabled Disruption: Implications for Business, Labor Markets and Monetary Policy" in Dallas at 15:45 GMT.
Major market themes
- Global equities recovered somewhat on Friday after the US President Trump canceled the summit with North Korean Kim Jong Un triggering the flight to safety in support of Japanese Yen.
- US Dollar recovered slightly after the risk aversion eased on Friday.
- Sterling initially fell but recovered on the downside after the first quarter GDP failed to surprise on the upside coming out in line with the market expectations.
- Watch USD reacting to the US durable goods orders report and read how to trade durables with EUR/USD here.
Earlier in Asia/Europe
- Tokyo core CPI rose 0.5% y/y in May, missing the market expectations.
- German Ifo business climate indicator rose slightly to 102.2 in May and stopped the five-month lasting trend of decline.
- The first revision of the first quarter UK GDP saw growth reaching 0.1% Q/Q and 1.2% y/y, unchanged from preliminary estimates.
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