American FX Outlook: Canadian retail sales and inflation and US Durables headline
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What you need to know before markets open
- Global stock markets continue to sell off on Friday with European indices falling to about 1-year low after Asian indices slumped steeply lower on fears of trade wars escalating after China retaliated the trade tariffs.
- Japanese Yen is a clear beneficiary of the risk aversion increasing, appreciating against the US Dollar to the highest level since November 2016.
- With the European economic calendar almost empty the Canadian retail sales and inflation and the US durable goods orders headline this Friday. For details of possible EUR/USD market reaction to the US Durables read click here.
Friday’s market moving events
- Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic is due to speak about the economic outlook at the Knoxville Economics Forum at 12:10 GMT.
- The US durable goods orders are expected to rise 1.5% m/m in February with core durables excluding car sales seen rising 0.5% m/m.
- External Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England member Gertjan Vlieghe is due to speak at the Birmingham Chamber of Commerce at 12:30 GMT.
- The Bank of Canada core CPI is expected to rise 0.5% m/m while acceleration to 1.4% y/y in February.
- Canada’s retail sales are anticipated to rise 1.1% m/m in January while core sales excluding cars are seen rising 0.9% m/m.
- The US new home sales are seen rising 4.4% m/m in February.
- Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in a moderated Q&A in New York at 14:30 GMT.
- Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan to participate in a moderated Q&A at the "Trellis Foundation Summit on Postsecondary Access, Affordability & Attainment" in Austin at 15:30 GMT.
Major market movers
- US Dollar is trading slightly lower against the major counterpart with loses concentrated to USD/JPY while being stable against EUR and GBP.
- Traditional safe-havens like JPY rose to the highest level since November 2016 and are likely to benefit further should the stock market rout continue.
- Watch CAD for a set of retail sales and inflation data with the appealing combination of both indicators exceeding expectations seen strongly supporting CAD that has recently fallen to the lowest level since last June.
Earlier in Asia/Europe
- No major macro news was released earlier in Europe.
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