Gold, myths, and market reality: Insights from Tickmill’s Johnny Khalil

Tickmill’s Group Director of Trading & Liquidity answers the question and dismantles the most common trading myths in this exclusive interview.

Investors have always sought to minimise losses while increasing their exposure to high-yield markets. In times of turbulence, this statement takes on greater nuance as investors tend to shift away from riskier assets like stocks towards safe-haven gold. In October 2025, gold surpassed the $4,000-mark for the first time. Historically, skyrocketing gold prices have signalled approaching economic upheaval. So it begs the question: Should we brace ourselves for an upcoming recession? If so, is gold better than bonds or cash? We invited Johnny Khalil, Group Director of Trading & Liquidity at Tickmill, to answer these questions and debunk some of the common myths circulating in online trading circles.

From stats and price projections, the conversation quickly pivoted to Tickmill and how a broker with such a long-standing reputation in the CFD trading space can consistently meet and exceed traders’ expectations.

First of all, Johnny, welcome and thank you for joining us. To say we’re going through an ‘interesting’ macroeconomic period would be an understatement, and I’m just as curious as our readers to understand how you would describe it. Are we facing a new recession? Why is the gold price still so high?

Thanks for having me. There's a long answer and a short answer to this. Gold has recently retraced from higher levels, but it’s still trading above $4,220, and there are several reasons for that. First of all, the ongoing war in Ukraine, coupled with central banks’ tendency to pivot from USD as a reserve asset to gold - in 2025 alone, central banks acquired over 1,000 tonnes of gold - has helped buoy the gold price lately, and, of course, the massive institutional participation. Global AUM for gold ETFs hit a jaw-dropping $445 billion, with nearly half amassed in US-listed funds. The short answer?

No, I don’t think we’re facing a recession, at least not in the very near future, despite the persistent fears. It’s all part of a cycle. Markets did cool briefly on softer employment data and fading expectations of a December rate cut.. But with the rate cut back on the cards recently, market activity has picked up. The S&P 500 ended November with a small gain of 0.25%. And this sentiment has filtered into other markets, including gold, which has cautiously resumed its climb.

Could gold reach $5,000 an ounce by the end of 2026, you think?

(Smiles) Well, it depends, If the economic conditions allow it, yes, it might reach the $5,000 threshold. Whether that’s going to be in the second half of 2026 or later, it remains to be seen. There are a lot of factors to consider. Gold prices rise, decline, or stagnate in cycles that vary between ten and sixteen years if we look at the last decade and a half.

Thomas Andrieu, author of an influential book on gold and its cycles, L’or et l’argent, and numerous other publications about the economy and gold market cycles, speaks about a sixteen-year gold price cycle. In 2023, he noted that a sixteen-year cycle may have been simmering for more than half a century. $1 invested at the beginning of the cycle is worth $5.20 at the peak - say, eleven or twelve years later. Comparatively, at the end of a bearish cycle, the same $1 invested at the start will be worth $2.70 on average when the downtrend reaches its lowest point.

Throughout history, there were two major periods of rising gold prices: 1971-1981 (the decade engulfing the demise of the gold standard), and 2001-2011. Conversely, periods of stagflation and decline followed during 1981-2001 and 2011-2016. Economic conditions differ each time, but the broad rhythm is recognisable. So, based on this theory, what’s been sweeping the gold market for the past three years, with periods of correction and retracement in between price jumps, is yet another bullish cycle that started in November 2022.

Long story short, there may still be a long way to go. But nothing should be taken literally right now. It is indeed a period of unpredictability. From President Trump’s tariffs-no tariffs ‘mood swings’ to the high chance of reduced US interest rates this December, high inflation in Europe - these factors impact currencies, bond markets, and gold. But challenges like these also create opportunities. And me and the team at Tickmill see traders who understand how to use diversification effectively benefitting the most.

You mentioned opportunities for traders in periods like this. How is Tickmill supporting them in the current environment?

Well, there’s no secret that Tickmill offers some of the lowest spreads on XAUUSD (Gold) CFDs - 0.07 pips average compared with an industry benchmark of around 0.28 pips. This is a real advantage for any type of trader, casual or more advanced. To give you an idea of how attractive this is to traders, in Q3 this year, the conditions we provide at Tickmill resulted in 13.9 million gold trades executed with us.

Wow, this must mean you’ve generated ample volume, too.

That equates to $342 billion in notional volume, making gold the top traded CFD instrument at Tickmill during Q3. None of this is embellished to promote Tickmill - it’s a real insight into what our clients like to trade, and indicative of the wider picture in financial markets.

Those are significant figures! Now that you’ve opened Pandora’s box, I cannot help but ask - what’s the account balance your traders typically need to trade gold with Tickmill?

It’s probably less than you think. Tickmill is not an exclusive broker; it’s a broker for everyone. With just $100, anyone can trade gold CFDs and other instruments and enjoy the same level of service. Most importantly, trading CFDs involves trading on the difference between the bid and ask prices of an underlying asset, without owning it. This allows traders to benefit from both declining and rising prices. That two-way exposure is a powerful diversification tool, especially in uncertain markets. Of course, traders must practise risk management, and I encourage everyone to use take-profit orders, stop-loss orders, and follow our blog for top financial news and market commentary.

Great insights. In your opinion, what keeps traders coming back to Tickmill?

Consistency. Traders value providers with fair and transparent pricing, and execution speed that leaves almost no room for slippage. We execute trades in sub-0.20s on average. And beyond that, our advanced trading tools, education, and access to 600+ CFDs on Forex, Stocks, Indices, and Commodities, amongst many other underlying assets. I would like to invite the readers to visit our website and see for themselves what Tickmill has to offer.

Sure. Lastly, are there any myths they should not mistake for facts?

Great question. The first such myth is that gold, being a safe haven, is a ‘cure for all ails’, such as volatility. False. Although gold can remain stable longer than cash or equities, for example, it can also surprise. In 2008, when the Lehman Brothers bank collapsed, investors rushed to liquidate their gold positions to get cash instead of buying. This triggered a sudden drop in gold prices, which went back up in 2011. So, in extreme cases like the 2008 Great Recession, gold serves as a liquidity hedge more than a safe haven.

The second myth - cash is a constant source of riches. Totally wrong because cash is subject to monetary policy changes and inflationary pressures. Periods of low interest rates paired with high inflation show how quickly cash can lose purchasing power. Even when savings earn interest, inflation often erodes real returns.

Finally, the third myth traders should not confuse with facts - Bonds are better than gold. The reality could not be more different. Both gold and treasury bonds offer safe-haven protection. The difference is in liquidity, price, and most importantly, the investor’s goals when choosing one or the other, or both. Gold is generally considered more liquid than bonds.

Conversely, bonds, including UK bonds (gilt), deliver regular fixed returns if held to maturity. That said, I strongly advise traders to avoid taking any information about the financial markets for granted. Each asset or instrument offers different advantages, returns, and risk exposure. Adopting a fact-focused approach to trading and setting clear goals can help traders navigate even the most turbulent markets and avoid falling for market myths.