Australia’s Trade Surplus narrows to 2,631M MoM in January
|Australia’s Trade Surplus narrowed to 2,631M MoM in January versus 3,373M in the previous reading, according to the latest foreign trade data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday. The market consensus was for 3,900M.
Further details reveal that Australia's Exports declined by 0.9% MoM in January from a rise of 0.9% seen a month earlier (revised from 1.0%). Meanwhile, Imports rose by 0.8% MoM in January, compared to a fall of 1.8% seen in December (revised from 0.8%).
Market reaction to Australia’s Trade Balance
At the press time, the AUD/USD pair is up 0.05% on the day to trade at 0.7081.
This section was published on March 4 at 23.05 GMT as a preview of the Australian Trade Data release.
The Australian Trade Data Overview
The Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish its data for January on Thursday at 00.30 GMT. Australia’s Trade Surplus is expected to widen to 3,900M MoM in January, compared to 3,373M in December.
Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.
How could the Australian Trade Data affect AUD/USD?
AUD/USD trades on a positive note on the day in the lead up to the Australian Trade Data. The pair gains ground as the US dollar (USD) ignored the positive employment data and ISM Services PMI data.
If data comes in better than expected, it could lift the Australian Dollar (AUD), with the first upside barrier seen at the March 3 high of 0.7133. The next resistance level emerges at the February 12 of 0.7147, en route to the 0.7200 psychological level.
To the downside, the March 2 low of 0.7033 will offer some comfort to buyers. Extended losses could see a drop to the February 9 low of 0.7007. The next contention level is located at the February 5 low of 0.6940.
RBA FAQs
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.
Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.
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