When are the US durable goods orders and how could they affect EUR/USD?
|US durable goods orders overview
Friday's US economic docket highlights the release of durable goods orders data for August. The US Census Bureau is scheduled to release the monthly report at 12:30 GMT and consensus estimates point to decline by 1.0% as compared to a solid rise of 2.0% recorded in the previous month.
Excluding transportation items - core durable goods orders, which tend to have a broader impact than the volatile headline figures, are anticipated to recover from the previous month's fall of 0.4% and post a modest rise of 0.2% in August. Meanwhile, non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft and parts - a proxy for business investment - are forecasted to remain flat after July's downwardly revised reading of 0.2% (0.4% reported earlier).
Deviation impact on EUR/USD
Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed, the reaction is likely to be in the range of 20-25 pips during the first 15-minutes in case of a deviation from +0.36 to -0.51 and could extend up to 51-55 pips in the following 4-hours.
EUR/USD important levels to watch
Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own Analyst offers some important technical levels ahead of the important release – “Support is at the fresh two-year low of 1.0905. Further down, 1.0820 and 1.0780 were gap lines back in April 2017. Lower, 1.0650 may serve as another cushion.”
“The currency pair continues battling 1.0926 – the previous 2019 trough and a double-bottom. 1.0965 capped a recovery attempt on Thursday and also worked as support beforehand. It is followed by 1.0995, which was a support line early this week. Next, we find 1.1025 and 1.1075,” he added further.
Key Notes
US Durable Goods Orders preview: Consumers have questions
EUR/USD Forecast: Closer to breaking 1.09, next leg determined by data
EUR/USD's fall may turn into an avalanche if this support is lost – Confluence Detector
About US durable goods orders
The Durable Goods Orders, released by the US Census Bureau, measures the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, such as motor vehicles and appliances. As those durable products often involve large investments they are sensitive to the US economic situation. The final figure shows the state of US production activity. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD.
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