USD/JPY: Any advance may be limited to a test of 148.45 – UOB Group
|US Dollar (USD) could strengthen further; deeply overbought conditions suggest any advance may be limited to a test of 148.45. In the longer run, USD could continue to advance, but it is unclear for now if it can reach 149.15, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
USD mught continue to advance
24-HOUR VIEW: "USD plummeted to a low of 145.47 two days ago and then snapped back up. Yesterday, when USD was at 146.90, we indicated the following: 'While there has been a build-up in upward momentum, this is likely to lead to a higher range of 146.30/147.35. In other words, USD is unlikely to break clearly above 147.35.' We underestimated the momentum build-up, as USD surged above 147.35, reaching a high of 148.26. Strong momentum indicates further USD strength, but deeply overbought conditions suggest any advance may be limited to a test of 148.45. The next resistance at 149.15 is likely out of reach. To sustain the overbought momentum, USD must hold above 147.40, with minor support at 147.75."
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "USD dropped below our previous downside technical target of 145.85 two days ago (low of 145.47), and then rebounded strongly. Yesterday (18 Sep, spot at 146.90), we pointed out that 'while downward momentum has slowed with the strong rebound, only a breach of 147.35 (‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that USD has moved back into a range-trading phase.' We added, 'until then, there is a slim chance for USD to revisit the 145.45 level.' USD then surged above 147.35 and reached a high of 148.26. The rapid increase in upward momentum indicates that rather than trading in a range, USD is more likely to continue to advance. That said, it is unclear for now if it can reach 149.15. We will maintain our view as long as the ‘strong support’ level, now at 146.80, is not breached."
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