USD: Jobs data won’t to be a game-changer for big picture economic outlook - ING
|ING’s economists note that today’s US jobs report is going to be another tricky one to interpret as September's hurricanes continue to skew the data.
Key Quotes
“Here is what we are expecting:
- After such a sharp fall in jobs growth in the wake of the hurricanes (+18k in September), October's +261k recovery looked slightly modest to us. This means there’s a possibility that the rebound in jobs has a little further to run. We there look for above-consensus job gains of around +220k.
- In the absence of any usual statistical quirks that often skew the data, a solid 0.3% month-on-month wage growth increase should be expected.
- After almost a million jobs were created in September according to the household survey, it wasn't that surprising to see roughly half of those gains reverse last month. Unemployment also fell quite a bit, which resulted in quite a large exodus from the labour market. Putting this all together resulted in a 'bad' fall in the unemployment rate from 4.3% to 4.1%.”
“Elsewhere, we note that US Congress signed a deal to avert a government shut-down – at least for a further two weeks. Another stop-gap measure is likely to be required (if there is no budget agreement before this date). While we may see a temporary reprieve in US assets and the USD – the big picture outlook does not change. Absent any positive jobs surprises, DXY to stay at 94.00.”
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