US trade deficit to widen from $36.4bn to $42.2bn - TDS
|Research Team at TDS, expects US international Trade for October should mirror the deterioration seen earlier in the advanced goods trade deficit.
Key Quotes
“TD looks for the trade deficit to widen from $36.4bn to $42.2bn, led by a correction in food & beverage exports (primarily soybeans). Services should also contribute to the wider trade deficit as an outsized drop in service imports partially corrects. The market is slightly less downbeat and looks for a -$42.0bn print.”
“In addition to trade, we will also receive revisions to nonfarm productivity, unit labour costs and factory orders. TD looks for Q3 nonfarm productivity to be revised higher from 3.1% to 3.3% q/q, in line with the market, but sees downside risks to the market consensus for an unrevised 0.3% increase in unit labor costs (TD: 0.2% q/q).”
“We look for October factory orders to post an above-consensus 2.8% m/m gain, due to strength in both durable and nondurable orders.”
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