US: Important week ahead - BBH
|Analysts at BBH suggest that there are three considerations in the week ahead for the US economy: economic data, Fed comments, and an initial assessment of the implications of the failure to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act.
Key Quotes
“Although Q4 GDP may be tweaked higher to 2%, the most important piece of economic data will be the February personal consumption figures. The pullback in the consumer is weighing on Q1 growth estimates, while the rise in business investment does not appear sufficient to counter it. Although February retail sales (~40% of PCE) was soft, the January figure was revised sharply higher. This means that the February PCE report should catch these developments. The targeted core PCE deflator is expected to be unchanged at 1.7%.”
“We note the contrasting projections by the Atlanta and New York Federal Reserve's GDP trackers. The Atlanta Fed's model has the US economy slowing to a 1.0% annualized pace in Q1. This would be just below the average Q1 pace beginning in 2010. However, the New York Fed's model has the economy tracking 3.0%. The market (Bloomberg median) is smack in between.”
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