UK Elections amongst market movers today – Danske Bank
|According to Danske Bank analysts, today, we have another important day ahead of us as the Brits are going to the ballots and the outcome of the general election will be decisive for Brexit.
Key Quotes
“The polling stations close at 23:00 CET, when we will also get the exit polls, which have been a reliable indicator for general elections. Our base case remain a Conservative victory, but as the YouGov's latest seat projection released Tuesday suggested, it may be closer than we think.”
“In case of a Conservative majority, we think PM Boris Johnson can get his Brexit deal through Parliament before Christmas, such that the UK leaves the EU on 31 January 2020. In case the opposition wins (Labour+LibDems+SNP+some smaller parties), we expect the parties to agree on a second EU referendum, where polls show "remain" is slightly ahead.”
“Both scenarios are likely to be interpreted positively by investors. Note, however, that the no deal Brexit fears may come back eventually if the withdrawal agreement passes, as the more complicated negotiations on the permanent future relationship are only set to start when the UK formally leaves the EU.”
“The negative scenarios are either a hung parliament or the unlikely scenario that Labour wins an outright majority due to the uncertainty it creates.”
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