UK: Election remains unpredictable – ABN AMRO
|Bill Diviney, a senior economist at ABN AMRO, continues to expect that the UK Prime Minister Johnson complies with legislation requiring a Brexit delay in the event no deal is passed by parliament. He expects a general election to follow in late November/early December.
Key Quotes
“While PM Johnson’s Conservatives currently enjoy around a 10-point lead in the opinion polls, polling has been highly volatile over the past year, with many Conservative voters ready to switch allegiances with the Brexit Party should they lose trust in PM Johnson’s ability to deliver Brexit.”
“Given this, the outcome of the election is highly unpredictable, depending on the following factors: 1) whether Conservatives campaign on a no-deal (if EU does not agree), or a deal platform (if EU agrees but parliament doesn’t pass); 2) whether Conservative voters punish the Conservatives for the inevitable Brexit delay, 3) the potential for alliances among pro-Brexit Conservatives and the Brexit Party on one hand, and anti-Brexit Labour, Liberal Democrats and Greens on the other.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.