S&P 500 futures poised for breakout as 6,243 holds – Playbook for London – New York overlap
|Strength above 6,243 unlocks 6,255–6,274 targets; failure risks quick pullback to 6,224 or 6,206
Market context
As we approach Monday's European session, the September E-mini S&P 500 (ESU2025) has re-established support at 6,243 after last Friday's intraday swing low of 6,183. The overnight session saw buyers defend 6,224, and today, the Index remains pinned above 6,243—signalling that the bulls are in control for now.
Key technical levels
Level: Significance.
6,274: Next upside pivot—Friday high confluence.
6,265: 1st upside projection (multi-timeframe).
6,255: Initial target off 6,243 hold.
6,243: Crucial short-term support (today's pivot).
6,224: Overnight session pivot & range midpoint.
6,206: Friday's support—secondary support.
Trade playbook
Long Scenario (Bullish Bias).
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Entry: On a sustained break and close above 6,255 (5-min candle).
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Stop-Loss: Place at 6,235 (just below today's main support at 6,243).
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Targets:
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First: 6,265 (minor pivot)
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Second: 6,274 (structural resistance)
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Extended: 6,288, 6,305 zone (if 6,274 is convincingly breached)
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Alternative Long Entry: A bounce off 6,243 with a bullish engulfing 5-min candle.
Short Scenario (Bearish Guardrails).
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Entry: On a break & close below 6,243.
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Stop-Loss: Place at 6,255 (above today's minor resistance level).
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Targets:
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First: 6,224 (overnight pivot).
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Second: 6,206 (Friday's support).
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Extended: 6,183 (long-term support).
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Caution: A breach below 6,206 may accelerate the downside into the 6,161–6,173 confluence area.
Risk Management & Notes
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Position Sizing: Risk no more than 1–2% of account per trade.
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Timeframe Alignment: Favour setups during the London–New York overlap (13:00–17:00 GMT).
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Fundamentals: Today's U.S. calendar is light; remain alert for unscheduled headlines that could amplify moves.
This playbook is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own analysis and apply proper risk management.
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