Reluctantly USD bullish here - Westpac
|Westpac's High Conviction FX Trades Report, suggests that the Brexit is imposing a structurally higher “political risk premium” on assets that will not go away soon and may well intensify, even if Article 50 is never triggered.
Key Quotes
“Stress points to watch the next year that will prevent risk premiums from ever falling too far include Italy’s senate reform referendum Oct 2016, US Presidential elections Nov 2016, Dutch elections Mar 2017, French Presidential elections Apr-May 2016 and German elections Sep-Oct 2017 – each carry high risks of an anti-establishment, anti-globalisation protest vote. USD likely firms into these events but are reluctant USD bulls given that even ahead of Brexit the Fed had been gravitating toward an even more glacial path for normalization than was already the case.”
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