RBNZ: Zero chance of a change in the OCR during the next four meetings - Westpac
|Imre Speizer, Research Analyst at Westpac, notes that the market pricing for the RBNZ assigns zero chance of a change in the OCR during the next four meetings.
Key Quotes
“However, beyond that, there increasing probabilities of rate hikes priced in, with a 70% chance by Nov 2017 and 100% by Feb 2018.”
“Our own macroeconomic forecasts have the RBNZ remaining on hold for the next two years but we understand the rationale for markets wanting to be well ahead of the game. If inflation and inflation expectation data keep unfolding in an upward direction during the months ahead, OIS pricing will only move further in that direction.”
“There is no RBNZ meeting in either Dec or Jan, with the next meeting in Feb being a full-blown MPS. Although there is no chance of an OCR move, we will be interested in any shift in the RBNZ’s inflation and OCR forecasts in response to the stronger economy and higher oil prices, for example.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.