RBA SoMP: Cuts near term outlook on growth, more upbeat further out
|The RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP) has been published, with the Central Bank trimming its GDP outlook near term., while showing more optimism further out.
Key headlines - via Reuters
Cuts GDP forecast for June 2017 by 1 ppt to 1.5-2.5 pct, December unchanged at 2.5-3.5 pct, June 2019 2.75-3.75 pct
Forecasts underlying inflation at 1.75 pct June 2017, 1.5-2.5 pct out to December 2018, 2-3 pct by June 2019
Judged holding policy steady consistent with growth, inflation targets
An appreciating AUD could complicate economy's transition
RBA includes new forecasts for unemployment, sees 5.75 pct mid-2017 and 5-6 pct out to mid-2019
Says economy unlikely to grow fast enough to pull jobless rate down
Says GDP growth looks to have rebounded in Q4, weakness in q3 was temporary
Says subdued growth in household income is expected to constrain consumption growth
Says surveys, liaison with firms suggest wage growth will not slow any further
Says inflation shows signs of having stabilised, to increase gradually over time
Forecasts assume recent jump in terms of trade, commodity prices will unwind over next two years
Says expansion in LNG exports to add 0.5 ppt to GDP in both 2017 and 2018
Global economy entered 2017 with more momentum than earlier expected
China growth stronger than expected, high and rising debt a medium term risk
Says significant uncertainty around policy in the united states
Risk US protectionist policies could harm global growth
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