Poland: The end of an era – Rabobank
|The Polish record long period of uninterrupted economic expansion since the collapse of communism is set come to an end this year due to a major demand and supply shock caused by the coronavirus, economists at Rabobank report. EUR/PLN trades at 4.5862.
Key quotes
“It would require a very optimistic assumption of economic activity coming back to normal relatively quickly, i.e. within next 2-3 months for Poland to avoid a recession. We expect a 2% contraction this year.”
“For the first time in its history the NBP will use unconventional tools to tackle the economic crisis. (...) We are far more concerned how investors will react if the NBP uses QE for longer than required.”
“EUR/PLN has entered a period of consolidation trading above the 4.50 level over the past few sessions. We prefer to be positioned for another leg higher in the coming weeks towards 4.80.”
“We anticipate EUR/PLN to peak between 4.80-5.00 in the first half of the year before retracing at least part of that move in H2.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.