Norges Bank meeting no game-changer for attractive NOK prospects – ING
|In view of analysts at ING, the widely expected 'on-hold' Norges Bank (NB) decision should have a negligible impact on NOK.
Key Quotes
“The pause in the NB tightening cycle has been well signalled. The main impact on NOK will come via the updated interest rate forecast.”
“We expect only modest changes in the NB interest rate outlook, meaning that the forecast should continue pointing to a partial probability of a hike in 2020. Should the partial hike be taken off the 2020 NB forecast, which isn't our base case, this would be NOK negative. An unchanged forecast should have limited impact on the currency.”
“With risk appetite stabilising on the back of an improvement on the US-China trade front, we see NOK as the most attractive European G10 currency. Solid carry, seasonal NOK strength in January and cheap valuation all suggest the krone’s outperformance early next year. On a regional basis, we prefer NOK to SEK as the former screens better on the carry-valuation basis.”
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