Market movers today - Danske Bank
|The Danske Bank analysts provide brief insights on the key events of note later in the day ahead.
Key Quotes:
Today, focus is first and foremost on the ongoing Brexit negotiations, as the deadline for reaching a deal before the EU summit is tomorrow. There was 'no breakthrough' over the weekend and the rest of the EU seems less upbeat than the Irish. It was also a blow for Johnson that DUP's deputy leader Dodd said 'no' to the current proposal. We now think the probability of a deal is 20% (from below 10% previously) but our base case remains another Brexit extension followed by a snap election. For more details see our Brexit Monitor: 20% probability of a deal but another extension followed by snap election remains our base case , 13 October.
Markets will also focus on the ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China after they completed 'phase one' of the negotiations on Friday. Despite the renewed optimism, in particular from the US side, we think there are still significant hurdles for a more comprehensive deal.
Today we have a thin calendar in terms of economic data releases. The euro area industrial production in August will likely attract attention given the weak PMIs. We do not expect the data to bring any cheer, showing the industrial recession dragging out in Q3.
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