Italy is the latest sign of Europe’s growing political fragmentation – Capital Economics
|Regardless of how the elections turn out, one thing is certain: Italy remains part of a broad European trend of declining support for traditional mainstream parties in favour of anti-establishment forces, explains Michael Pearce, Senior US Economist at Capital Economics.
Key Quotes
“As the last few years have shown us, a fragmented political landscape makes it harder to form stable governing coalitions:
- In October 2016, Spain’s Popular Party formed a minority government after ten months of political deadlock and two elections. Spain is also struggling to contain separatist forces in Catalonia.
- The Netherlands has seen the combined support for its three traditional mainstream parties—Labour, Christian Democrats, and Freedom and Democracy—plunge from 86% in 1986 to 36% in the latest election (April 2017). It took over seven months of negotiations for four parties to recently agree on a fragile coalition with only a one-vote majority in the parliament. The far-right Freedom Party is now the largest opposition party in the Netherlands.
- Even Germany, long a bastion of political stability, is not immune. The combined support for its two main parties—the Democratic Union/Christian Social Union alliance and the Social Democratic Party—has plummeted from 90% in the late 1970s to under 55% in the last election. Recent polls have their combined support at under 50%. If these two succeed in forming a governing coalition, the far-right Alternative for Germany party will become Germany’s largest opposition party.
- Last June's British election saw the Conservatives lose their majority. They were forced to form a coalition with a tiny Northern Ireland party to stay afloat. Meanwhile, the center-left Labour Party has been taken over by a far-left-leaning leader, Jeremy Corbyn.
- In Austria, the center-right People's Party entered into a governing coalition with the far-right Freedom Party following the October 2017 election. The People’s Party was forced to adopt much more hardline views on immigration and the EU in order to win the election.
- The Polish and Hungarian governments continue to pursue populist domestic agendas in defiance of the EU. The challenge of containing of populist forces would be even more difficult if Europe entered an economic downturn.”
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