IMF forecast downgrades still assume 2020 recovery – ABN AMRO
|Nick Kounis, head of financial markets research at ABN AMRO, notes that the IMF has revised its global growth estimates lower and noted that ‘the global economy is in a synchronized slowdown, with growth for 2019 downgraded again – to 3 percent – its slowest pace since the global financial crisis’.
Key Quotes
“It explained the weakness as being related to ‘rising trade barriers; elevated uncertainty surrounding trade and geopolitics; idiosyncratic factors causing macroeconomic strain in several emerging market economies; and structural factors, such as low productivity growth and ageing demographics in advanced economies’.”
“Despite the downgrades, the IMF continues to expect a modest improvement in global growth next year – to 3.4% – though it does admit that the recovery is ‘precarious’ and that risks are skewed to the downside.”
“Our own forecasts are 0.8% for this year and 0.6% for next. For the US, the IMF expects 2.4% in 2019 and 2.1% in 2020, while we expect economic growth to slow from 2.2% this year to 1.3% next.”
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